808
FXUS64 KEWX 011802
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
102 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The forecast has been updated to make some upward adjustments in rain
chances for the coastal plains region for the afternoon hours. One
complex is currently moving off the middle Texas coast and outflow
from this complex will move northward into the coastal plains and
Highway 77 corridor this afternoon. Additional convection is expected
to develop along this boundary. A few strong to severe storms are
possible as well and SPC has recently issued Severe Thunderstorm
Watch #365 which covers our Lavaca and DeWitt counties and areas
farther east across southeast Texas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

An MCS over the Texas South Plains is currently passing to the north
of our area. It`s only impact is to send a surface boundary into our
area that could generate some showers over the Edwards Plateau into
Val Verde county early this morning. This boundary will wash out
later this morning as southeasterly lower level flow takes hold. A
few showers and thunderstorms will develop near the Coastal Plains
this morning, then spread across the I-35 corridor into the eastern
Hill Country this afternoon with heating. Showers and thunderstorms
will develop along the dryline across western Texas and over the
Serranias del Burro in Mexico due to heating and the approach of a
mid level impulse this afternoon. These may form into clusters and
move into our western areas this evening, then dissipate as they
move into the I-35 corridor early in the overnight hours with loss
of heating and the exit of the impulse. Forecast soundings show
ample instability and shear for strong to severe storms with large
hail and damaging winds the main threats. Above normal PWS indicate
a potential for locally heavy rains with minor flooding the main
threat, especially in areas that have had heavy rains recently.
Redevelopment of a few showers and thunderstorms is possible over
Central Texas Sunday afternoon. Near to slightly above normal
temperatures can be expected today through Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Well above average heat becomes the main story once more through
next week as upper level ridging centered over Mexico gradually
nudges northward towards and atop the Desert Southwest. This heat
likely peaks sometime midweek with Wednesday forecast to be the
hottest day across the area. Afternoon highs into the mid to upper
90s will be common while 100s will trend west-southwest of San
Antonio towards the Rio Grande. Thanks in part to the recent soil
moisture from Spring rains, dew points are to remain elevated
through much of the period. This will help result in higher heat
indices where daily heat advisories may again be needed across
portions of the region with values near or above 108 degrees. The
overnights will run very warm and humid as well given those dew
points with lows in the mid to upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

Our rain/storm chances lessen through the long term as the active
storm pattern starts to transition and favor farther north into
portions of the central plains. However, models on recent runs do
show a possible disturbance advancing across the area into and
through Monday evening. The disturbance could help initiate some
potential convection along and west of the Rio Grande. Have added
low end PoPs across most locations as this activity may have the
ability to advance across portions of the region mainly beyond
sunset. While the bulk of next week will remain dry, we`ll still
have to keep an eye out for any stray opportunities as the
development of a more northerly flow aloft may still allow for any
stronger outflows and/or convective complexes that establish to
advance into and across portions of the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A northward moving outflow boundary along with daytime heating should
generate some isolated to scattered showers and storms for areas
mainly along and east of I-35/I-37 this afternoon. For now, we will
only mention VCSH at the I-35 sites as overall coverage should remain
fairly low. MVFR clouds will return to all sites early Saturday
morning as a potential complex of storms moves southward toward DRT.
The latest hi-res and even a global model all show potential for
storms at DRT early Sunday morning. For now, we will mention a PROB30
group between 06-11Z, but this may need to be adjusted pending radar
trends. A few models also show some of this activity moving toward
SAT and SSF early Sunday morning. For now, we will hold off and
continue to monitor before adding to the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              90  76  94  78 /  20  10  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  90  75  93  77 /  20  10  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     91  76  96  78 /  20  20  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            87  74  90  75 /  20  10  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           98  80 100  82 /  20  30  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        89  73  91  76 /  20  10  20   0
Hondo Muni Airport             94  76  97  77 /  20  30  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        90  75  94  77 /  20  10  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   88  77  92  77 /  40  10  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       91  78  96  79 /  20  30  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           93  78  97  79 /  20  30  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...18
Aviation...Platt