Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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638 FXUS64 KEWX 310542 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1242 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Have issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358 for the eastern Hill Country to across northern parts of the I-35 corridor to US 77. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms over West Central Texas will move to the southeast across those areas. Large to very large hail and damaging winds are the main threats with locally heavy rains also expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Concerns in the short term period continue to be focused on thunderstorm chances along with the potential for severe storms. Current radar trends are fairly quiet with only some recent attempts for convection noted in the coastal plains southeast of San Antonio. Looking elsewhere, an outflow boundary is noted across west central Texas into north Texas with storms developing mainly along and behind this feature. Over south central Texas, the hi-res models tend to favor areas along and east of I-35/I-37 through this afternoon for some isolated convection developing within an axis of higher surface-based CAPE as noted on recent SPC mesoanalysis products. A localized hail and wind threat will likely accompany the stronger storms. As the late afternoon and evening hours progress the above mentioned outflow boundary will likely move southward and help gin up some scattered convection, mainly across the Hill Country and nearby I-35 corridor near Austin. The other area we will be monitoring is out west along the Rio Grande where some activity from the lower Trans Pecos or west of the Rio Grande may move southeast or east toward Val Verde county late this afternoon and evening. With plenty of instability and adequate shear, the main severe weather concerns will be large hail and damaging winds. In addition, an isolated tornado can`t be ruled out. Recent SPC outlooks have increased the severe weather threat with a small area of Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) clipping northern Burnet and Llano counties. Farther south, a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) is in place to the Highway 90 corridor, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) over the remainder of the region. There will also be the potential for locally heavy rainfall and some minor flooding as well, with WPC favoring our northern areas mainly north of I-10. Confidence in what transpires for the early morning hours on Friday is fairly low as much will depend on what happens this evening. For now, we will carry a decent chance for showers and storms for areas generally north of I-10. Most guidance agrees that whatever manages to move in from the north should be gradually weakening as we head into the early morning hours on Friday. The forecast for Friday afternoon into Friday Night will largely depend on what takes place tonight into Friday morning. With this in mind, will lean toward some gradual clearing from late Friday morning into the afternoon hours. This along with daytime heating and any remnant outflow boundaries from previous convection should be enough to generate another round of afternoon and evening convection. SPC currently places a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms across most of south central Texas. This will likely be adjusted in subsequent forecasts. If storms manage to develop, large hail and damaging winds will be the main severe weather concerns. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Saturday morning begins with isolated to low end chances for showers and storms mainly across the Hill Country and along and east of Highway 77. Cloudy skies are forecast for most areas through the morning period, however, low level cloud deck breaks and gives way to partly cloudy skies for the afternoon. Highs are likely to range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the Hill Country, I-35 and the coastal plains to the upper 90s and up to the 100 to 102 range along the Rio Grande. Scattered showers and storms initiate mid to late Saturday afternoon over west Texas ahead of the dryline and to the south of a weak frontal boundary over central Texas. An upper level short wave moving across the Southern Plains through the period is forecast to drive convection over parts of the Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country mainly in the evening into the overnight hours. Some of these storms could end up being strong to marginally severe capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail. The stormy conditions come to an end from west to east with overnight lows in the 70s and even low 80s along the Rio Grande. The wet pattern comes to an end with low chances for showers and isolated storms mainly over the northern part of the Hill Country on Sunday. High temperatures are slightly increasing over all areas with highs ranging from the low to mid 90s across most locations and up to 103 along the southern part of the Rio Grande. The dry and warmer weather conditions continue through the middle part of next week with highs increasing about a degree or two each day especially along the Rio Grande. Increased moisture arrives during this part of the extended forecast period and heat index values are likely to be close and even reaching critical values across parts of the I-35 corridor, coastal plains and the Rio Grande plains. More details on this topic as we get closer that period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Difficult forecast with respect to impacts from SHRA/TSRA. A cluster may impact KAUS early in the morning and have introduced VCSH there. Then, PROB30s for midday through early evening. Otherwise, MVFR CIGs lifting to VFR by midday, then returning Friday night. Southeasterly, occasionally breezy winds prevail. However, SHRA/TSRA may bring shifting winds with strong gusts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 74 91 75 92 / 30 30 20 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 91 75 93 / 30 30 20 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 94 76 95 / 30 30 20 10 Burnet Muni Airport 72 88 73 90 / 30 30 20 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 79 101 79 100 / 20 10 30 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 72 89 74 91 / 30 30 10 20 Hondo Muni Airport 75 95 77 96 / 30 10 20 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 92 75 93 / 30 30 20 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 90 76 92 / 20 30 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 94 77 95 / 40 20 20 10 Stinson Muni Airport 77 95 78 96 / 30 20 20 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...04 Long-Term...Brady Aviation...04