Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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353 FXUS64 KEWX 110831 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 331 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 An upper level low currently over the Texas Panhandle will move to the southeast over Texas today, then open into a trough over eastern Texas into Louisiana/Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. This feature along with heating and any surface boundaries will generate showers and thunderstorms with its passage. Clusters and supercells are expected. The best timing will be this afternoon into evening. Forecast soundings indicate elevated instability and shear. Damaging winds are the main threat in the clusters with large hail the main threat in the discrete cells. SPC has levels 1 to 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms today with the higher risk over the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. PWs up to 2 inches indicate a potential for locally heavy rains. Minor flooding is the main threat, especially for areas having slower moving storms or those that move over areas that have received heavier rains recently. WPC has a level 1 out of 4 risk for excessive rainfall for all areas today and eastern areas on Wednesday. Near to slightly above normal temperatures can be expected with heat indices remaining below advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 As the remnants of an upper trough continue to move south of the region, some weak upper disturbances in the northerly flow aloft and daytime heating may allow for some isolated convection to linger across the coastal plains Wednesday. We will keep a low chance (20%) in the forecast for the mentioned region during the evening, then go with a dry forecast into early Thursday morning. The mid and upper level subtropical ridge axis remains the dominant weather feature across the region through the remainder of this week. We expect dry weather along with a slow warming trend across south central Texas, with daytime highs in the lower 90s to near 100 degrees and overnight lows generally in the 70s. As we head into early next week, the medium range models show the subtropical high splits, with one center over the southeastern U.S. and another over northwestern Mexico. The low-level thermal ridge looks to remain fairly stout, so our temperatures are likely to trend upward a degree or two. With a weakness in mid and upper level heights developing over the northwestern Gulf into south Texas, we will keep some low rain chances in the forecast for areas generally along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 VFR flying conditions will prevail overnight through Tuesday evening. There are low PROBs for SHRA/TSRA with restrictions to CIGs and/or VSBYs. Will leave mention out for now as there is now uncertainty on locations and movement. However, expect mention in later forecasts for at least one or more sites based on radar and/or model trends. MVFR CIGs return later Tuesday night. Light, less than 10 KTs, winds prevail, except strong wind gusts are possible in/near SHRA/TSRA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 93 73 91 73 / 40 30 30 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 92 73 89 71 / 30 30 30 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 95 74 92 73 / 30 30 30 0 Burnet Muni Airport 89 71 87 71 / 50 40 30 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 102 80 100 81 / 20 20 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 90 72 88 71 / 40 40 30 0 Hondo Muni Airport 96 74 93 74 / 20 30 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 93 73 89 72 / 30 30 30 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 92 73 88 73 / 20 20 30 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 95 76 92 75 / 20 30 20 0 Stinson Muni Airport 96 76 94 76 / 20 30 20 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...04 Long-Term...Platt Aviation...04