Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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643
FXUS64 KEWX 080724
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
224 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Early Saturday morning the upper level pattern across the U.S. shows
an upper level ridge of high pressure centered of the NW Gulf...an
upper low over Baja and broad NW flow from the Northern Rockies to
the mid Atlantic. The upper ridge over the Gulf will dominate our
weather in the short term allowing for deeper onshore flow and the
return of higher moisture levels especially along the Rio Grande.

Still waiting to see if in fact some low clouds will form down to
our SE and move this general direction.  Despite this possibility
will keep with mostly sunny skies today because the moisture is
fairly shallow, PW values still fairly low, and low level winds will
be relatively strong...which should allow for good mixing. Out along
the Rio Grande we could have some high clouds come across from
Mountain storms. Models show dewpoints dropping into the mid to
upper 60s again this afternoon. So even with the temps forecast to
be in the mid to upper 90s, low 100s out west...we should stay below
Heat Advisory criteria.  We could see the S/SE winds gust over 20 kt
in many spots by mid afternoon which should help to alleviate some
of the heat issues.

After several days of cloud free mornings...the surge in moisture
will create a cloudy morning on Sunday. Temps will rebound quickly
and still approach 100 in many areas under partly cloudy to mostly
sunny skies. With the higher dewpoints expected we may get close to
Heat Advisories especially along the Rio Grande Sunday afternoon.
Max temps will once again be several degrees above normal. The good
news is that the upper ridge over the N. Gulf starts to weaken to
our east as the Baja low pressure area moves into the desert SW and
merges into some NW flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

An upper level low currently over the southern half of the Baja
peninsula will lift northward into the desert southwest through the
weekend. Some weak upper level disturbances associated with this low
as well as a 60-70kt subtropical jet will bring a low chance for some
showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. As of now, it
appears rain chances will remain low and mainly favored over the Hill
Country and southern Edwards Plateau, where models show an outflow
boundary/weak cold front may approach from the north. The GFS model
has trended much weaker with this boundary and subsequently trended
higher with the forecast highs on Monday. We will continue this trend
as well and side with the warmer guidance on Monday into Tuesday.
While we could see a weak easterly wind shift and some temporary
lowering of dewpoints, we prefer to keep temperatures near or above
normal behind the boundary.

Southeasterly winds in the lower-levels are likely to return to all
areas on Tuesday and we will quickly return to a hot and humid
pattern across south central Texas. We will keep a low chance for
some isolated late afternoon/early evening convection in the forecast
across the coastal plains, with a dry forecast elsewhere. The
remnants of the upper low mentioned above are expected to move across
the Texas Panhandle into north Texas Tuesday into Wednesday. While
some sort of convective complex will likely accompany this upper low,
rain chances continue to remain favored well to our north. We will
monitor for possible southward propagating outflow boundaries which
may help initiate some convection across north and central Texas late
Tuesday or Wednesday.

Late in the forecast period, the mid and upper level subtropical
ridge axis will strengthen to our west. Temperatures still appear to
remain at or above normal with the low-level thermal ridge amplifying
over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

No major changes from the previous thinking but confidence is
increasing that at least some low clouds will start to form to the SE
as moisture advection increases over the next several hours. 00z
model time sections of RH shows evidence of the low clouds forming
and SREF probabilities of MVFR are rather high over the SAT area by
dawn. Still only went with a Tempo group for MVFR at SAT/SSF as I
have seen too many times the models bring back the surges too quick.
Even if the ceilings do form, they should mix out fairly quickly in
the AM hours and turn to VFR with some southerly winds gusting over
20 kt in the PM hours. Time sections of RH and MOS guidances point to
widespread MVFR/IFR across the region on Sunday morning with
SAT/SSF/AUS likely being affected. Have this mentioned as prevailing
conditions by 09z Sunday at SAT/AUS. Will keep DRT VFR through the
forecast. There is a low chance that the cigs on Sunday morning could
work there way up the Rio Grande and get to Del Rio in the AM hours
Sunday morning.

Seasonal wind patterns will prevail...S/SE with PM gusts over 20 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  75  96  75 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  74  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     99  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            94  72  93  73 /   0   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport          103  80 103  81 /   0   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        95  73  93  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             99  75 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        96  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   94  74  93  75 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       98  76  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport          100  77 100  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...09
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...09