314
FXUS64 KEWX 080554
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1254 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Skies are mostly clear across South-Central Texas this afternoon
with just a few patches of a few fair weather cumulus out there.
Temperatures are in the lower to middle 90s for most locations and
dewpoints have begun to mix out which is something we have not seen
too much of yet this summer. San Antonio International airport went
from a dewpoint of 72 to 66 in an hour and boy do we love to see it.
Although the temperature increased from 91 to 95 in the same time the
heat index stayed at 99!

Beyond the little victories of the heat, highs today will still top
out in the middle 90s to near 103 degrees out west. Tonight should
be mostly clear for the most part with some patchy nocturnal stratus
in some places with the southern and western areas likely the
preferred areas. Lows will be back in the lower to middle 70s for
most locations with some upper 70s near the Rio Grande. With
continued high pressure, tomorrow will be very similar to today with
similar dewpoints. Will not need any heat products as moisture
values remain in check. Could see a possible return of a decent
coverage of nocturnal status tomorrow night and with that lows could
have been a bit warmer.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Upper level high pressure will be located over the northern Gulf of
Mexico on Sunday keeping southerly flow at the surface and maximum
temperatures in the 90s and low triple digits this day. Remnants of
a weak upper low move towards the southern Plains Sunday night and
linger near the area through Tuesday. This feature brings low
chances for showers or thunderstorms (around 15-20 percent) to the
area mainly Monday afternoon and evening. While slightly cooler
temperatures are seen in the northern and eastern portions of the CWA
Monday and Tuesday, it does not look like a significant drop with
highs ranging from the low 90s in the northeastern portion of the
area to around 103 degrees near the Rio Grande Monday and Tuesday.

A warming trend is seen mid to late week as the subtropical high
builds in again west of South Central Texas. A few models try to
bring some additional precipitation chances to our far eastern
Coastal Plain counties mid-week but chances are capped around 15
percent as confidence remains low. In general, most the area looks
to remain dry through the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

No major changes from the previous thinking but confidence is
increasing that at least some low clouds will start to form to the SE
as moisture advection increases over the next several hours. 00z
model time sections of RH shows evidence of the low clouds forming
and SREF probabilities of MVFR are rather high over the SAT area by
dawn. Still only went with a Tempo group for MVFR at SAT/SSF as I
have seen too many times the models bring back the surges too quick.
Even if the ceilings do form, they should mix out fairly quickly in
the AM hours and turn to VFR with some southerly winds gusting over
20 kt in the PM hours. Time sections of RH and MOS guidances point to
widespread MVFR/IFR across the region on Sunday morning with
SAT/SSF/AUS likely being affected. Have this mentioned as prevailing
conditions by 09zSunday at SAT/AUS.  Will keep DRT VFR through the
forecast. There is a low chance that the cigs on Sunday morning could
work there way up the Rio Grande and get to Del Rio in the AM hours
Sunday morning.

Seasonal wind patterns will prevail...S/SE with PM gusts over 20 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  96  75  94 /   0   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  95  75  93 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  99  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            72  93  73  91 /   0   0  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           80 103  81 101 /   0  10  10  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  94  73  91 /   0   0  10  20
Hondo Muni Airport             74 100  77  98 /   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  96  74  94 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  94  75  93 /   0   0   0  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  98  77  96 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           76 100  78  97 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...09
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...09