Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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052 FXUS64 KEWX 111724 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1224 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION(18Z TAFS)... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 An upper level low currently over the Texas Panhandle will move to the southeast over Texas today, then open into a trough over eastern Texas into Louisiana/Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. This feature along with heating and any surface boundaries will generate showers and thunderstorms with its passage. Clusters and supercells are expected. The best timing will be this afternoon into evening. Forecast soundings indicate elevated instability and shear. Damaging winds are the main threat in the clusters with large hail the main threat in the discrete cells. SPC has levels 1 to 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms today with the higher risk over the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. PWs up to 2 inches indicate a potential for locally heavy rains. Minor flooding is the main threat, especially for areas having slower moving storms or those that move over areas that have received heavier rains recently. WPC has a level 1 out of 4 risk for excessive rainfall for all areas today and eastern areas on Wednesday. Near to slightly above normal temperatures can be expected with heat indices remaining below advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 As the remnants of an upper trough continue to move south of the region, some weak upper disturbances in the northerly flow aloft and daytime heating may allow for some isolated convection to linger across the coastal plains Wednesday. We will keep a low chance (20%) in the forecast for the mentioned region during the evening, then go with a dry forecast into early Thursday morning. The mid and upper level subtropical ridge axis remains the dominant weather feature across the region through the remainder of this week. We expect dry weather along with a slow warming trend across south central Texas, with daytime highs in the lower 90s to near 100 degrees and overnight lows generally in the 70s. As we head into early next week, the medium range models show the subtropical high splits, with one center over the southeastern U.S. and another over northwestern Mexico. The low-level thermal ridge looks to remain fairly stout, so our temperatures are likely to trend upward a degree or two. With a weakness in mid and upper level heights developing over the northwestern Gulf into south Texas, we will keep some low rain chances in the forecast for areas generally along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A bit of a tricky forecast this package as storms may impact AUS, SAT, and SSF, with confidence highest at AUS. Have opted for a TEMPO group at AUS and PROB30s at SAT and SSF for -TSRA. Winds should remain mostly light and variable today but may shift to a slightly more easterly component by early evening. DRT should remain more easterly to southeasterly through the period with VFR ceilings. MVFR CIGs look like a good bet at AUS, but the possibility of some patchy fog is not out of the question, so have hedged towards 5SM vis at AUS and will reevaluate at the amendments and 00Z TAFS. With regard to timing, storms should mainly move through between 00-06Z, but we could see some development before that at AUS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 73 91 73 95 / 30 30 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 89 71 93 / 30 30 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 92 73 96 / 30 30 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 71 87 71 92 / 40 30 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 80 100 81 103 / 20 10 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 72 88 71 92 / 40 30 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 74 93 74 97 / 30 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 89 72 94 / 30 30 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 88 73 93 / 20 30 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 92 75 96 / 30 20 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 76 94 76 97 / 30 20 10 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...04 Long-Term...Platt Aviation...MMM