Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
314 FXUS64 KEWX 080554 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1254 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Skies are mostly clear across South-Central Texas this afternoon with just a few patches of a few fair weather cumulus out there. Temperatures are in the lower to middle 90s for most locations and dewpoints have begun to mix out which is something we have not seen too much of yet this summer. San Antonio International airport went from a dewpoint of 72 to 66 in an hour and boy do we love to see it. Although the temperature increased from 91 to 95 in the same time the heat index stayed at 99! Beyond the little victories of the heat, highs today will still top out in the middle 90s to near 103 degrees out west. Tonight should be mostly clear for the most part with some patchy nocturnal stratus in some places with the southern and western areas likely the preferred areas. Lows will be back in the lower to middle 70s for most locations with some upper 70s near the Rio Grande. With continued high pressure, tomorrow will be very similar to today with similar dewpoints. Will not need any heat products as moisture values remain in check. Could see a possible return of a decent coverage of nocturnal status tomorrow night and with that lows could have been a bit warmer. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Upper level high pressure will be located over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday keeping southerly flow at the surface and maximum temperatures in the 90s and low triple digits this day. Remnants of a weak upper low move towards the southern Plains Sunday night and linger near the area through Tuesday. This feature brings low chances for showers or thunderstorms (around 15-20 percent) to the area mainly Monday afternoon and evening. While slightly cooler temperatures are seen in the northern and eastern portions of the CWA Monday and Tuesday, it does not look like a significant drop with highs ranging from the low 90s in the northeastern portion of the area to around 103 degrees near the Rio Grande Monday and Tuesday. A warming trend is seen mid to late week as the subtropical high builds in again west of South Central Texas. A few models try to bring some additional precipitation chances to our far eastern Coastal Plain counties mid-week but chances are capped around 15 percent as confidence remains low. In general, most the area looks to remain dry through the work week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 No major changes from the previous thinking but confidence is increasing that at least some low clouds will start to form to the SE as moisture advection increases over the next several hours. 00z model time sections of RH shows evidence of the low clouds forming and SREF probabilities of MVFR are rather high over the SAT area by dawn. Still only went with a Tempo group for MVFR at SAT/SSF as I have seen too many times the models bring back the surges too quick. Even if the ceilings do form, they should mix out fairly quickly in the AM hours and turn to VFR with some southerly winds gusting over 20 kt in the PM hours. Time sections of RH and MOS guidances point to widespread MVFR/IFR across the region on Sunday morning with SAT/SSF/AUS likely being affected. Have this mentioned as prevailing conditions by 09zSunday at SAT/AUS. Will keep DRT VFR through the forecast. There is a low chance that the cigs on Sunday morning could work there way up the Rio Grande and get to Del Rio in the AM hours Sunday morning. Seasonal wind patterns will prevail...S/SE with PM gusts over 20 kt. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 74 96 75 94 / 0 0 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 95 75 93 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 99 75 96 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 72 93 73 91 / 0 0 10 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 80 103 81 101 / 0 10 10 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 73 94 73 91 / 0 0 10 20 Hondo Muni Airport 74 100 77 98 / 0 0 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 96 74 94 / 0 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 94 75 93 / 0 0 0 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 98 77 96 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 76 100 78 97 / 0 0 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...09 Long-Term...Platt Aviation...09