Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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109 FXUS64 KEWX 060741 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 241 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 An upper level ridge builds over our area today into Friday bringing a drier airmass aloft. With heating, this drier air should be able to mix to the surface and allow high temperatures to warm back up today and Friday across areas that saw "cooler" temperatures on Wednesday. Expect well above normal high temperatures to continue. Deeper moisture lingers over the Rio Grande Plains and Winter Garden regions today where heat indices may flirt with Advisory level criteria this afternoon. Will hold off on issuance as they will be brief and not widespread. Drier air should mix more efficiently over the Rio Grande Plains on Friday keeping heat indices below criteria. With the moisture lingering over the Rio Grande Plains, cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm or two later this afternoon into early evening due to heating as indicated in some CAMS. However, chances are too low to mention there with better chances over the Serranias del Burro of Mexico where forcing by the mountains will overcome increasing subsidence underneath the ridge. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 A 591 to 592 decameter mid-level ridge remains positioned atop of the state entering the long term period but will gradually begin to weaken and slide southeastward from Sunday into the start of next week. This is helped by a series of disturbances moving across the central and northern CONUS. A front still looks to push southward towards Central Texas sometime into and during Monday as well. The latest GFS/ECMWF guidance is not quite as bullish regarding the front to where it may struggle to advance across the entire region before stalling. A northwesterly to northerly flow aloft should then develop into and through the middle of next week as the area will become sandwiched in-between a building ridge to the west and some troughing to the east as an upper level disturbance or two could approach portions of the northern Gulf coast. Air temperatures stay hot through this weekend as afternoon highs should top out in the mid to upper 90s for many and into the 100 to 103 degree range across our western and southwestern zones. Dew points are the difference in keeping the heat levels from becoming as oppressive as what we had observed earlier in the week. The dew points should mix out efficiently to keep those peak heat indices in the more typical summertime range of between 100 to 105 degrees. Thus, heat products are not expected at this time through the weekend. Temperatures then trend slightly downward into early next week pending the influences from that approaching front. Expect increased cloudiness and at least some low end rain chances (20 to 30 percent) into and through Monday. However, latest medium range guidance, including the ensemble means, indicate that the better signal for rain likely will focus farther north. Rain chances look to generally decline during midweek but a stray opportunity could potentially crop up at times with any residual outflow boundaries and/or mesoscale features. The temperatures around midweek also start to slowly climb back upwards as well. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 The outflow boundary that surged across most of our area on Wednesday disrupted the lower level flow. At the I-35 sites, MVFR CIGs have been removed, although FEW MVFR clouds are still possible overnight into mid morning with VFR prevailing through Thursday night. Light winds overnight become easterly at 5 to 10 KTs on Thursday, then light again Thursday night. Pattern remains at KDRT with MVFR CIGs in the morning, otherwise VFR with occasionally breezy southeasterly winds. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 253 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 THU FRI SAT 06/06 06/07 06/08 ------------------------------------------------ AUS 103/2011 100/2022 99/2022 ATT 103/2022* 103/2022 102/1925 SAT 104/2022 104/2022 101/2022 DRT 110/2022 108/1974 107/2020 * TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 98 73 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 97 71 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 100 72 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 95 71 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 105 82 105 79 / 10 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 96 70 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 101 73 102 74 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 98 71 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 95 71 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 99 74 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 101 74 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...04 Long-Term...Brady Aviation...04