170
FXUS64 KEWX 120623
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
123 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Latest regional radar imagery shows a line of storms developing
along an outflow boundary extending southward from the tail end of a
morning complex of storms. The Hill Country and Southern Edwards
Plateau will be first in line for some strong to severe storms, with
SPC painting a Level 1-2 out of 5 risk for the entire CWA this
afternoon and evening. Damaging wind looks to be the primary hazard
with some large hail also possible given the instability present.
However, with a rather warm and moist atmospheric profile, the
concern for hail is a bit lower than recent events. A 500mb
shortwave at the base of a passing upper level low to our north will
be the primary forcing mechanism along with the rich boundary layer
moisture and elevated instability. Expect storms to push through
from northwest to southeast and perhaps even turn more southerly
than usual as the shortwave disturbance swings through our region.
Yet another weak shortwave may push through from north to south on
Wednesday on the back side of the departing upper low, which may
support additional showers and storms, but at this time, severe
weather does not look to be a threat for our region. Temperatures
are expected to remain near the status quo, if not slightly cooler
outside of the Rio Grande Plains. Highs should top out in the upper
80s to mid 90s for most, with lower 100s along the Rio Grande.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The subtropical ridge will build back across TX Thursday. Dry weather
will return, and a warming trend will begin. Models continue to show
temperatures a little cooler over the latter part of the week. Highs
will mostly be in the 90s with triple digits confined to the Rio
Grande region and southern I-35 Corridor. Afternoon dewpoint
temperatures will remain mainly steady in the upper 60s to lower 70s
through the weekend keeping heat indices below advisory criteria.
Monday a midlevel trough will approach the TX coast from the Gulf and
could produce some showers and thunderstorms over the Coastal Plains
Monday and Tuesday afternoons. There will also be increase in
dewpoint temperatures raising heat index values. We could see heat
advisory levels across the Coastal Plains and southern I-35 Corridor
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Some low cloud development as well as isolated convection is noted
on early morning satellite imagery. We will continue to mention some
TEMPO groups for MVFR clouds for all sites this morning, mainly
between 10-15Z. Hi-res models show the ongoing convection will
gradually expand in coverage today and will mention VCSH for the I-35
sites as well as PROB30 for TSRA during the morning into early
afternoon hours. Coverage of convection should be a little lower out
west at DRT and will not mention in the forecast at this time. Winds
generally remain fairly light through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              91  74  95  74 /  30   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  91  73  93  73 /  20   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  74  96  72 /  20   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            87  73  92  73 /  30   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          101  81 103  81 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        88  72  92  71 /  30   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             93  74  97  74 /  10   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        90  73  94  72 /  20   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   89  74  93  73 /  30   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       92  76  96  75 /  20   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           93  77  97  76 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...04
Aviation...Platt