052
FXUS64 KEWX 111724 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1224 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

An upper level low currently over the Texas Panhandle will move to
the southeast over Texas today, then open into a trough over eastern
Texas into Louisiana/Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. This
feature along with heating and any surface boundaries will generate
showers and thunderstorms with its passage. Clusters and supercells
are expected. The best timing will be this afternoon into evening.
Forecast soundings indicate elevated instability and shear. Damaging
winds are the main threat in the clusters with large hail the main
threat in the discrete cells. SPC has levels 1 to 2 out of 5 risk
for severe storms today with the higher risk over the Hill Country
and Edwards Plateau. PWs up to 2 inches indicate a potential for
locally heavy rains. Minor flooding is the main threat, especially
for areas having slower moving storms or those that move over areas
that have received heavier rains recently. WPC has a level 1 out of
4 risk for excessive rainfall for all areas today and eastern areas
on Wednesday. Near to slightly above normal temperatures can be
expected with heat indices remaining below advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

As the remnants of an upper trough continue to move south of the
region, some weak upper disturbances in the northerly flow aloft and
daytime heating may allow for some isolated convection to linger
across the coastal plains Wednesday. We will keep a low chance (20%)
in the forecast for the mentioned region during the evening, then go
with a dry forecast into early Thursday morning.

The mid and upper level subtropical ridge axis remains the dominant
weather feature across the region through the remainder of this week.
We expect dry weather along with a slow warming trend across south
central Texas, with daytime highs in the lower 90s to near 100
degrees and overnight lows generally in the 70s. As we head into
early next week, the medium range models show the subtropical high
splits, with one center over the southeastern U.S. and another over
northwestern Mexico. The low-level thermal ridge looks to remain
fairly stout, so our temperatures are likely to trend upward a degree
or two. With a weakness in mid and upper level heights developing
over the northwestern Gulf into south Texas, we will keep some low
rain chances in the forecast for areas generally along and east of
the Interstate 35 corridor.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A bit of a tricky forecast this package as storms may impact AUS,
SAT, and SSF, with confidence highest at AUS. Have opted for a TEMPO
group at AUS and PROB30s at SAT and SSF for -TSRA. Winds should
remain mostly light and variable today but may shift to a slightly
more easterly component by early evening. DRT should remain more
easterly to southeasterly through the period with VFR ceilings. MVFR
CIGs look like a good bet at AUS, but the possibility of some patchy
fog is not out of the question, so have hedged towards 5SM vis at AUS
and will reevaluate at the amendments and 00Z TAFS. With regard to
timing, storms should mainly move through between 00-06Z, but we
could see some development before that at AUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  91  73  95 /  30  30   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  89  71  93 /  30  30   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  92  73  96 /  30  30   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            71  87  71  92 /  40  30   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           80 100  81 103 /  20  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  88  71  92 /  40  30   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74  93  74  97 /  30  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  89  72  94 /  30  30   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  88  73  93 /  20  30   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  92  75  96 /  30  20   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  94  76  97 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...MMM