454
FXUS64 KEWX 100527
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1227 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

The past couple hours of satellite visible imagery have shown
escalation cumulus growth over parts of the Hill Country, Edwards
Plateau and Rio Grande Plains. While the convective allowing models
have been running conservative for this area, the GFS runs have been
somewhat consistent on this area being unstable for much of tonight
with some pockets of heavy QPF amounts over 1 inch suggested at
times. Tonight`s 12-hr PoP for this area is bumped up another 10 to
15 percent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Clouds continue to dissipate over the eastern half of the area early
this afternoon with lingering low to mid-level clouds in the west.
These lingering clouds may keep a few locations over the southern
Edwards Plateau slightly cooler today, but overall hot and humid
conditions are seen across South Central Texas this afternoon. Highs
will reach into the triple digits along the Rio Grande into the Rio
Grande Plains with 90s expected elsewhere.

A front currently draped across the panhandle of Texas will begin to
move south tonight into Monday morning which will bring some low
shower and thunderstorm chances to the area through Monday morning,
mainly limited to the western half of the CWA. While isolated
development ahead of this front may occur, the better chances look
to be a complex developing in northwest Texas that will move towards
the area late tonight or overnight. Low to moderate instability will
be in place but shear is lacking, so storms may also be weakening as
they move towards the area. As mentioned in the precious discussion,
it is still early June, however, and some isolated severe activity
cannot be ruled out.

The aforementioned front and any outflow boundaries bring more low
end (around 15-30 percent) chances for convection tomorrow.
Thunderstorm development will likely be more isolated or scattered
in the afternoon aided by diurnal heating. Placement for any storms
tomorrow is still hard to say but not expecting any widespread
activity or rainfall. Will need to watch for another complex
skimming the northern portions of the area Monday night. Expect high
temperatures to be a bit cooler tomorrow so no Heat Advisory is
anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A midlevel shortwave trough will move across TX Tuesday and Wednesday and
may provide enough lift to generate showers and thunderstorms. However,
chances will only be around 20% and will be limited to the northern Hill
Country and eastern Coastal Plains. Most of the region will remain dry.
The shortwave will move off to the east Wednesday night, and the subtropical
ridge will strengthen. Dry weather will return and a warming trend will
begin. Triple digit highs will spread across from west to east south of
the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country reaching the western Coastal Plains
by Friday. Dewpoint temperatures will remain mainly steady in the upper
60s to lower 70s keeping heat indices below advisory criteria. Above normal
temperatures will continue over next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Thunderstorm complex moving through the San Antonio sites is mostly
over, but will include VCSH/VCTS through 7z to account for the
exiting activity. Some light rain will also be possible. Additional
storms are developing well north of DRT and will have to watch for
that to possibly impact the terminal there, but will keep the
forecast dry. VFR will mostly prevail through the period with
additional isolated to scattered showers and storms tomorrow
afternoon. Will mention VCSH to cover that for now. Winds will be
mostly light through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  94  73  90 /  10  10  20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  94  72  89 /  10  10  20  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  96  73  93 /  10  10  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            72  91  71  87 /  10  10  20  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           78 101  80 101 /  20  10  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  92  71  87 /  10  10  20  20
Hondo Muni Airport             73  97  74  93 /  10  10  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  94  72  91 /  10  10  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  92  73  89 /  10  10  10  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  96  75  92 /  10  10  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           75  98  76  94 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...05
Aviation...29