409
FXUS64 KEWX 270606
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
106 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Our weather today is being dominated by the upper level ridge to the
south over Mexico...a trough moving through the Central Plains...and
some fast zonal flow in the mid levels across west Texas.  Clouds
have been stubborn to move out of the region today...waiting for the
NW 850mb winds to push them out. As of this writing clouds are still
over I-35 and eastward...with nearly clear skies over the Hill
Country and the Rio Grande area. The surface trough/dryline is
making a surge eastward out west...into Val Verde County and
portions of Edwards County. With Temps over 100 and dewpoints
dropping fast...issued a Fire Danger Statement as RH should drop
below 10 percent later today.  That surge of dry air will not really
make it past a Fredericksburg to Eagle Pass line...so most of the
area will remain in the hazy, hot, smokey airmass.  Heat Advisories
and Excessive Heat warnings remain in effect...although the
cloudcover mentioned above is delaying a lot of the hottest temps.
There is still a strong likelihood we will hit criteria so no
changes to the ongoing look or timing of the heat products.  The
Advisory/Warning is carried overnight into tomorrow until 8 PM
Monday.

By this evening look for the clouds to thin before reforming
overnight with lows in the 70s...low 80s along the Rio Grande.
Another cloudy morning on Monday is expected. Models are still going
strong with heat/humidity Monday so everywhere except the Hill
Country will remain in the Heat ADV/Warning.   Some tweaks may be
needed on the overnight shift if the clouds once again look to
persist longer into the early afternoon...those few degrees could
overall impact the decision making of counties in/out of the Heat
products. Will be carrying a 20 pop across most of the zones except
the far west sections of Val Verde County Monday afternoon and
evening.  A few of the models including the GFS are showing
convection over our region, likely from a ripple moving across in
the upper levels and some meso type boundaries.  Confidence is still
low of exactly how many people could see storms on Monday.  SPC
expanded the marginal risk across all of the CWA tomorrow.  If any
storms do fire...with the intense heat expected...SVR storms would
be expected...with some good wind potential.  Any convection that
does form...should dissipate by the time late evening arrives with
Monday night expected to be fairly quiet unless some storm complexes
can get going.  WPC has painted some qpf over much of the
CWA...again likely bullish in areal coverage...but at this point no
real great way to tell where a favored area is based on a limited
amount of models even showing the activity.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

"Cooler" temperatures are forecast for the extended forecast period
with highs in the low to mid 90s across a good portion of the local
area and upper 90s to 103 degree range along the Rio Grande.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast each afternoon
into the evening period. Storm development areas preferred are the
Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, areas along the
I-35 corridor and the coastal Plains. Some strong to marginally
severe storms are possible especially Tuesday and Wednesday with
main hazards being damaging winds and large hail. Can`t ruled out a
few rounds of heavy downpours through the period.

Expect mostly cloudy to cloudy mornings with clouds breaking in the
afternoon for the most part. It looks like Tuesday could stay mostly
cloudy all day as mid to upper level moisture prevails over South
Central Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Light E/S winds tonight will probably enable some of the low clouds
to dip briefly into IFR. Some of the NAM MOS guidance was depicting
VLIFR vsbys around the San Antonio area, so a drop to LIFR vsbys may
need to be considered briefly. Typically when the overnight is this
warm, the air remains too well mixed for dense fog, especially
considering the very low soil moisture levels around SAT/SSF. Late
morning MVFR cigs may mix out faster today than Sunday. In the 12Z
update, we may consider a faster return to VFR well before 18Z, based
on the limited amount of low cloud signals we see on satellite at
the current time. Isolated storms are not accounted for in the late
afternoon period in regards to wind shifts, but that may need to be
adjusted later as storm outflows could expand out significant
distances should storms develop at the right time. For now, we just
have a subtle suggestion of 2 mid/high cloud layers to signal some
instability moving into the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Climate....with record highs tomorrow at SAT/ATT/AUS all at
100...there is a chance that some or all of those could be
tied/broken. DRT record is 106...which should be broken.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  94  73  89 /  20  30  40  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  95  71  89 /  20  30  40  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  96  73  94 /  20  20  30  20
Burnet Muni Airport            72  91  71  86 /  20  30  50  40
Del Rio Intl Airport           81 101  76  99 /  20  30  30  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  93  71  86 /  20  30  40  40
Hondo Muni Airport             75  97  72  94 /  20  20  40  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  95  71  91 /  20  30  30  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  93  75  89 /  20  20  20  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  95  74  93 /  20  20  30  20
Stinson Muni Airport           76  97  75  94 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Kinney-Maverick-
Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson-Zavala.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-
Bastrop-Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Dimmit-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales-
Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Medina-Travis-Wilson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...29
Aviation...18