Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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241 FXUS64 KEWX 100759 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 259 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 251 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Early morning radar trends show one area of convection weakening over eastern Bexar/western Guadalupe counties. Elsewhere, another area of convection continues over Val Verde and Edwards counties, along with some weak radar echoes developing farther east into the Hill Country across northern Kerr county. Rain chances through most of the morning hours have been based largely on radar trends and adjusted upward across the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country. While a few strong to marginally severe storms are possible, most activity should remain below severe limits. Some locally heavy rainfall can be expected given healthy precipitable water values and weak steering flow. The latest model guidance has trended upward with regard to rain chances across south central Texas today. A fairly weak, but broad upper low over far west Texas into southern New Mexico will slowly drift northward today. On the southern edge of this low, some weak upper disturbances embedded in the weak west/northwest flow aloft will move into the region. With daytime heating and outflow boundaries from ongoing convection, we expect to see additional showers and storms today. We have opted to increase rain chances over the NBM given the pattern we are in. While model solutions vary, we have enough confidence to boost rain chances into the 30-50% range for most of the region today. We may need to trend these values upward (southern Edwards Plateau/Rio Grande plains?) if we start to see signs of MCV development from the ongoing activity. For tonight, most areas should see a decrease in coverage of convection. The models do favor some overnight activity moving down from west central Texas into portions of the western Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau and perhaps the Rio Grande plains. We will keep some low rain chances here, but again may need to boost pending model trends. The slow-moving upper low begins to move southward out of the Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas on Tuesday. Convection should be mostly isolated Tuesday afternoon, with models favoring the Hill Country and nearby I-35 corridor near and north of Austin. Given the fairly weak flow aloft, chances for a few strong to marginally severe storms will remain low. However, above normal moisture and overall weak steering flow will pose a locally heavy rainfall concern, especially where multiple rounds of showers and storms occur. With the increased rain chances, we will keep highs mostly in the 90s today and tomorrow. The exception being out west along the Rio Grande, where some highs may approach 100 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 251 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 An increase in mid-level disturbances associated with the above mentioned upper low are expected to move out of west central Texas into portions of central Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday. A fair amount of the models show some of the higher rainfall totals during the late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning time frame over the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau. We have increased rain chances over this region and will likely need to make additional adjustments depending on what occurs from previous rounds of convection. Some pockets of heavy rainfall are likely to develop, but the exact location remains in question. For now, the models tend to favor the Hill Country, but some of this could also drop southward into the I-35 corridor. Given the ongoing areas of drought across the Hill Country, portions of the I-35 corridor and Rio Grande plains, some areas we are hopeful for some localized improvement in drought conditions. If the pattern manages to develop as expected, highs on Wednesday may only peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the Hill Country and a decent portion of the I-35 corridor. If the upper low trends a little slower in subsequent model runs, we may need to add some rain chances to the forecast for Wednesday night. With the subtropical ridge axis quickly building in from the west during the latter half of this week, temperatures are expected to trend upward. In addition, we will keep the forecast dry through the mentioned period. Highs on Thursday will range from the lower 90s to near 100 degrees. These values will increase into the mid 90s to near 105 degrees for the upcoming weekend. Overnight lows are largely expected to remain in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Thunderstorm complex moving through the San Antonio sites is mostly over, but will include VCSH/VCTS through 7z to account for the exiting activity. Some light rain will also be possible. Additional storms are developing well north of DRT and will have to watch for that to possibly impact the terminal there, but will keep the forecast dry. VFR will mostly prevail through the period with additional isolated to scattered showers and storms tomorrow afternoon. Will mention VCSH to cover that for now. Winds will be mostly light through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 94 74 93 73 / 30 20 10 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 93 73 93 72 / 30 20 10 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 95 74 96 73 / 30 20 10 30 Burnet Muni Airport 90 73 90 71 / 40 20 20 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 98 79 101 80 / 30 20 0 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 91 73 91 71 / 40 20 20 30 Hondo Muni Airport 95 74 96 74 / 30 20 10 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 93 73 93 72 / 30 20 10 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 92 74 91 73 / 30 20 20 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 95 75 95 75 / 30 20 10 30 Stinson Muni Airport 96 76 97 76 / 30 20 10 30 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...Platt Long-Term...Platt Aviation...29