932
FXUS64 KEWX 290431
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1131 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

* Level 2 to 3 out of 5 risk for severe storms through late tonight
  across most areas of South Central Texas. Greatest concerns are
  damaging straight line winds and large hail.

* Heavy rainfall expected with levels 1 and 2 out of 4 risk for
  flash flooding, especially for our northern and northeastern most
  counties.

* Dangerous heat lingers this afternoon with peak heat indices as
  high as 110 degrees across our southern most areas.

An outflow boundary moved across the Hill Country, the I-35 corridor
and over parts of the coastal plains. This outflow generated strong
wind gusts and helped with the development of isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms. We issued earlier a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
for the Hill Country and some of the eastern far counties. We were
able to cancel the watch earlier this afternoon for those counties.
However, storms started to go up across the San Angelo CWA and that
prompted SPC to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Val Verde
County until 9 PM. Honestly, hires models have a somewhat idea about
the convective outlook for the rest of this afternoon into this
evening. With that said, expect storms to continue developing ahead
of the dry-line and a cold front over central Texas slowly pushing
to the southwest. Expect storms to grow in scale and become strong
to severe through late tonight as they push to the southeast as they
follow the southeast steering flow. If these storms hold through
late tonight, they will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts
of 60+ mph, and large to very large hail. Can`t rule out an isolated
tornado or two. Also, some of these strong to severe thunderstorms
could produce heavy downpours that may result in locally minor flash
flooding. The storms will move to the east overnight with things
drying out to the west. However, the wet pattern continues into
Wednesday mainly across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and the
coastal plains.

Circling back to the third bullet point above, heat index values are
likely to reach the 108 to 110 mark for a few hours this afternoon
where the Heat Advisory is taking place. However, the outflow
boundary mentioned above brought cooler temperatures and dew points
across the local area and it is expected to continue to push to the
southwest into the western part of the coastal plains and the Rio
Grande Plains. We may be able to cancel the Heat Advisory earlier if
the outflow trend continues to bring a "cooler and less moist"
airmass to the south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Daily low to medium thunderstorm chances and near normal
temperatures are in the forecast through the weekend. The
thunderstorm chances are attributed to a combination of factors,
including a stationary front across north Texas, a dryline across
west Texas, any outflow boundaries that develop from convection each
day, and weak impulses/disturbances in the mid/upper level flow.
While this particular pattern results in daily chances for rain, the
exact locations where the rain will fall remain uncertain due number
of factors at play and the nuances of each one. Regardless, daily
isolated to scattered convection across the state will help keep
temperatures at bay through the weekend due to increased cloud cover
and rain cooled air. Guidance shows a slight northward shift of the
higher upper level heights into the beginning of next week, which
will likely bring a slight warming trend and drier conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Showers and thunderstorms continue to move east across the area,
mainly east of I-35 at the start of the period. MVFR ceilings are
seen in the wake of this system at I-35 sites, expected to return to
VFR during the morning and remain the rest of the day. There are
lesser chances for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow and will keep
a dry forecast for all sites at this time. MVFR ceilings look to
return to the area Thursday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              86  72  89  74 /  20  60  40  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  88  72  88  73 /  20  50  40  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     92  72  92  74 /  10  60  40  30
Burnet Muni Airport            84  69  85  71 /  20  40  40  30
Del Rio Intl Airport          100  76  99  79 /  20  50  10  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        85  71  86  71 /  20  50  40  30
Hondo Muni Airport             98  72  93  74 /  10  60  10  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        90  71  90  72 /  20  50  40  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   89  74  89  74 /  20  40  60  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       97  73  91  75 /  10  60  20  30
Stinson Muni Airport           99  74  93  76 /  10  60  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...Gale
Aviation...27