678
FXUS62 KFFC 270231
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1031 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

...Late Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Other than a few clouds all is quiet across North and Central
Georgia. Though this will be short lived as a line of showers and
thunderstorms, some being strong to severe, will approach the
area from the northwest in the early hours of Monday (Memorial
Day). Storms are currently slated to arrive in the northwest as
early as 3 to 5AM. Primary concerns, particularly in far
northwest Georgia, will be the potential for strong damaging
winds, hail up to an inch, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, low
clouds, locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning and gusty
winds will accompany the line as it moves through Monday morning.
Latest hi-res trends indicate some weakening in the line as it
approaches the metro before reinvigorating tomorrow afternoon.
Made some tweaks to reflect current trends, though overall the
forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Clear and fair conditions today, with some nice cumulus across the
region. A few showers with potentially a rumble of thunder are
possible in far Northeast GA. These will be aided by outflow from an
mcs moving through TN and KY, however further south into our area
will remain dry due in part to some weak CIN. With the clear
conditions, temps will be toasty with highs reaching over 90 for the
vast majority of the area.

Looking overnight tonight into Memorial Day, a line of thunderstorms
will make its way out of TN. This line will have the potential to be
severe. Current models are indicating MUCAPE ahead of the line of
~2000 J/Kg. Shear will be high as well with 40 to 50 kts of speed
shear and SRH values of up to 150 m2/s2. CAMs are having a hard time
keying into the exact timing for the line to move through, however
the HRRR has probably been the most consistent. For now will look
for storms to move into North GA around 10Z and descend southward.
The challenge will come with the evolution of the line as it
descends through the Metro. Most models are weakening the line as it
moves through North GA. This seems suspect given MCS trends, the
shear available, and how cold-pools are handled in CAMs. As such the
more likely scenario will see the line move well through the metro
similar to yesterday. This should limit thunderstorm potential later
in the afternoon. Areas where the line does weaken tomorrow morning,
particularly in areas south of I-20, a few storms could redevelop as
the cold front itself moves through and become strong to severe.
We will closely monitor the evolution of the line tomorrow. The
main hazard will definitely be wind. Lapse rates also indicate a
hail threat, and brief "spin-up" tornadoes are not out of the
question.

QPF across the area hangs around the 0.5 to 1.5" at this time,
however locally heavy rainfall is likely with right moving storm
motions.

Temperature-wise tomorrow, have opted to drop temps from model
guidance by a degree or two to account for reduced solar heating in
the morning.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Fairly quiet weather expected for the long term portion of the
forecast.

Monday`s front should settle to the south of the CWA by early
Tuesday. The models are progging a couple of waves to move along the
old boundary, but any precip should remain well to the south of the
outlook area. By the end of the week, a ridge in the mid levels
begins to build. Suspect the models are trending towards climatology
for pops by the weekend.

Overall, the forecast should remain mostly dry with temperatures
near normal. No major changes needed.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 744 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions will gradually give way to gradually deteriorating
conditions after 06z. A line of shra/tsra will move into the
region as early as 07-08z, approaching the metro ATL area as early
as 10-12z, and gradually moving southward. Cigs anticipated to
reach MVFR (possibly IFR) criteria and gusts winds (20 to 27kts)
as the line pushes through. As a whole, SW/WSW winds will largely
remain elevated through the period 5 to 12kts with gusts picking
up Monday aftn. Winds behind the line will switch to the W/WNW
with speeds diminishing after 23z. Cigs are expected to begin
improving after 18z.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

Medium confidence on timing of convection, IFR potential and wind
gusts. High confidence on all other elements.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  84  66  88 /  40  50  20   0
Atlanta         71  85  68  88 /  30  60  20   0
Blairsville     64  79  59  79 /  70  80  10   0
Cartersville    68  84  63  86 /  50  60  10   0
Columbus        72  86  69  91 /  10  50  30   0
Gainesville     68  82  65  85 /  50  60  10   0
Macon           70  86  68  90 /  10  50  30  10
Rome            69  85  64  86 /  60  60  10   0
Peachtree City  70  84  65  88 /  20  50  20   0
Vidalia         71  89  71  90 /  10  50  50  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...07