Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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933 FXUS62 KFFC 270654 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 254 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Clear and fair conditions today, with some nice cumulus across the region. A few showers with potentially a rumble of thunder are possible in far Northeast GA. These will be aided by outflow from an mcs moving through TN and KY, however further south into our area will remain dry due in part to some weak CIN. With the clear conditions, temps will be toasty with highs reaching over 90 for the vast majority of the area. Looking overnight tonight into Memorial Day, a line of thunderstorms will make its way out of TN. This line will have the potential to be severe. Current models are indicating MUCAPE ahead of the line of ~2000 J/Kg. Shear will be high as well with 40 to 50 kts of speed shear and SRH values of up to 150 m2/s2. CAMs are having a hard time keying into the exact timing for the line to move through, however the HRRR has probably been the most consistent. For now will look for storms to move into North GA around 10Z and descend southward. The challenge will come with the evolution of the line as it descends through the Metro. Most models are weakening the line as it moves through North GA. This seems suspect given MCS trends, the shear available, and how cold-pools are handled in CAMs. As such the more likely scenario will see the line move well through the metro similar to yesterday. This should limit thunderstorm potential later in the afternoon. Areas where the line does weaken tomorrow morning, particularly in areas south of I-20, a few storms could redevelop as the cold front itself moves through and become strong to severe. We will closely monitor the evolution of the line tomorrow. The main hazard will definitely be wind. Lapse rates also indicate a hail threat, and brief "spin-up" tornadoes are not out of the question. QPF across the area hangs around the 0.5 to 1.5" at this time, however locally heavy rainfall is likely with right moving storm motions. Temperature-wise tomorrow, have opted to drop temps from model guidance by a degree or two to account for reduced solar heating in the morning. SM && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday morning through next Saturday) Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Fairly quiet weather expected for the long term portion of the forecast. Monday`s front should settle to the south of the CWA by early Tuesday. The models are progging a couple of waves to move along the old boundary, but any precip should remain well to the south of the outlook area. By the end of the week, a ridge in the mid levels begins to build. Suspect the models are trending towards climatology for pops by the weekend. Overall, the forecast should remain mostly dry with temperatures near normal. No major changes needed. NListemaa && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 243 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR to start TAF period. Line of TSRA currently in TN and AL will push into the metro TAF sites later this morning, but expected to be weakening. Best thunder chances represented by TEMPO between 11Z and 15Z. Strong winds may precede thunderstorms at metro TAF sites, with gusts up to 25 kts. Cigs will drop as line pushes through, MVFR expected, though periods of IFR will be possible. Some clearing will happen through afternoon allowing for chance of more afternoon storms, though high uncertainty around these forming. Winds today will be SW, 7-12 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. Front will eventually approach and pass airport, turning winds NW later this evening. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium afternoon convection potential, high all others. Lusk && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 64 88 62 85 / 20 0 0 0 Atlanta 66 88 65 84 / 20 0 0 0 Blairsville 58 79 54 76 / 10 0 0 0 Cartersville 62 86 59 83 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 68 91 66 89 / 30 0 0 10 Gainesville 65 85 62 82 / 20 0 0 0 Macon 67 90 65 89 / 30 0 0 0 Rome 63 87 60 83 / 10 0 0 0 Peachtree City 64 88 63 85 / 20 0 0 0 Vidalia 71 91 67 90 / 40 10 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SM LONG TERM....NListemaa AVIATION...Lusk