638
FXUS63 KFGF 301454
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
954 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected today with
  amounts generally ranging from a tenth in NE ND to three
  quarters of an inch in the southern valley.

- There is a low chance for severe thunderstorms Sunday during
  the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Updated rain and thunderstorm timing through the afternoon.
Overall, the forecast remains on track this morning. Winds
continue to gusts upwards of 35 mph, especially in the Red
River Valley. Temperatures range from the low 60s to near 70
degrees.

UPDATE
Issued at 651 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Initial or lead area of convection from last nights development
in the western Dakotas has waned as it approached the western
fringe of the FA. Went ahead and reduced pops for much of the
morning in the valley with only some scattered pops before
better areal coverage is expected late this morning into the
afternoon with the westerly wind shift/frontal passage. All else
remains on target with respect to forecast with breezy south
winds and a relatively warm start to the day as temps are in the
low to mid 60s in the valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...Synopsis...

Ensemble guidance continues to suggest the active pattern
persisting into as least the first week of June with multiple
chances for precipitation over the next 7 days. Upper level flow
will continue to allow waves to traverse the area unimpeded in
the westerly flow aloft. Temperatures moving into June will be
at or slightly below normal for highs, with low to mid 70s
expected except when showers and cloud cover occur during
midday, holding temps into the upper 60s.

...Showers with embedded thunderstorms today...

Increasing moisture return in the mid levels streaming north
induced by low pressure maturing in northern Alberta will bring
categorical rain chances to the area today. This moisture stream
under 500mb confluence will provide widespread lift and
scattered elevated convection this morning in eastern ND until
better forcing with a midlevel short wave and westerly wind
shift move into the valley. This will lead to rain amounts, as
mentioned in the key messages, of less across the northern
valley and more in the south, generally a tenth or so in the
north increasing to near 0.75" in west central MN where more
instability bring the stronger forcing and higher rainfall
rates with some convection.

In the wake of the system, Friday and Saturday will remain in
the cyclonic flow of the upper low, at the base of the trough
with shower chances remaining possible whenever a vort lobe of
energy pinwheels around the upper low over the FA. Currently
guidance suggests thats possible, with a 20 to 30% chance of
PoPs, Friday night and early Saturday morning.

...Thunderstorms Sunday...

Model guidance including CSU machine learning do point to a
potential for severe thunderstorms associated with the
theta-e/moisture gradient expected to develop across the area.
Dewpoints over 60 appear likely in the southern portion of the
FA along with 40kts of westerly 500mb flow. These items suggest
we`ll have the shear and instability present for organized
convection initiation will depend on forcing and boundary
location which at this distance in time remain uncertain but
the set up is beginning to take shape. Sundays forecast should
be watched as we move closer to the weekend especially for
people with outdoor/lake activities.

The active pattern continues into next week, with thunderstorm
chances entering the forecast again Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR Conditions will quickly drop into the MVFR/IFR category as
these line of showers/t-storms approach the TAF sites moving
west to east. These showers have slowed down as they approached
KDVL so timing has been a little bit more difficult. Ceilings
are also going to be difficult since under the storm the
ceilings range from 1500 to 3500ft. By 04-06z VFR conditions
are expected at all TAF sites.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...MM