Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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910 FXUS63 KFGF 290912 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 412 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The active weather pattern will continue with several chances of rainfall through the next 7 days with Thursday and Sunday into Monday being the most likely to see widespread 0.25" or more amounts. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Overall good agreement with model ensembles leading to above average confidence with the forecast wrt to overall temp and precip pattern for the end of the week and into the weekend. After a dry and sunny day today as upper level ridging traverses the area attention turns to Thursday. Synoptic forcing with upper wave in MT lifting into Manitoba and southwest 500mb flow and associated mid level trough will spread lift east across the FA Thursday. Reinforcing an area of showers and initiating some thunderstorms. HREF place the highest QPF in the southern valley not surprising with the highest, though meager, CAPE values, 100 to 300J/kg of ML CAPE. Probabilities of more than a half inch of rainfall have decreased across the north, now less than 25% to 50 to 60% in the southern valley, with probs of an inch or more now at or less than 10% for the entire area. The area will remain in fairly flat or zonal flow with multiple chance for rainfall through the weekend and into next week. We will continue to remain on the low end of any instability until Sunday night when we should see some deeper moisture build into the area. This is the next chance for more wide spread areal rainfall after the spotty and lighter amounts associated with the chances Friday night and Saturday night into Sunday morning. Needless to say the active pattern does look to persist into the beginning of June with temps climbing closer to normal with more 70 degree days occurring. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1025 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Conditions should remain VFR this evening. Winds will become light and variable early this evening, before shifting to more easterly/southeasterly into Wednesday. Skies will remain clear until Wednesday evening/Thursday when rain approaches from the west. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JK AVIATION...AH