Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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737 FXUS63 KFGF 291504 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1004 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The active weather pattern will continue with several chances of rainfall through the next 7 days with Thursday and Sunday into Monday being the most likely to see widespread 0.25" or more amounts. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1005 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Clear skies prevail across the forecast area this morning with fog now having cleared in most areas. Temperatures are in the middle 50s to low 60s with winds slowly increasing out of the south to southeast. UPDATE Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Low lying fog this morning reported at GFK and is evident in the up and down nature of restricted obs across the area. No OBS are less than a half mile thus impacts are minimal and with the full sun this morning will see it quickly burn off. Forecast remains on track for a sunny Wednesday with some afternoon breezes of 20 to 30 mph. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Overall good agreement with model ensembles leading to above average confidence with the forecast wrt to overall temp and precip pattern for the end of the week and into the weekend. After a dry and sunny day today as upper level ridging traverses the area attention turns to Thursday. Synoptic forcing with upper wave in MT lifting into Manitoba and southwest 500mb flow and associated mid level trough will spread lift east across the FA Thursday. Reinforcing an area of showers and initiating some thunderstorms. HREF place the highest QPF in the southern valley not surprising with the highest, though meager, CAPE values, 100 to 300J/kg of ML CAPE. Probabilities of more than a half inch of rainfall have decreased across the north, now less than 25% to 50 to 60% in the southern valley, with probs of an inch or more now at or less than 10% for the entire area. The area will remain in fairly flat or zonal flow with multiple chance for rainfall through the weekend and into next week. We will continue to remain on the low end of any instability until Sunday night when we should see some deeper moisture build into the area. This is the next chance for more wide spread areal rainfall after the spotty and lighter amounts associated with the chances Friday night and Saturday night into Sunday morning. Needless to say the active pattern does look to persist into the beginning of June with temps climbing closer to normal with more 70 degree days occurring. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 608 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Some shallow morning fog is developing in some spots across the airports. By 14z all the fog should be burned off and conditions will remain VFR for all TAF sites. Southerly winds will bounce between 150-170 degrees. Gusty winds will become prominent around this afternoon with gusts up to 30 knots expected. A low level jet looks to setup this tonight with wind shear up to 45 knots. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Lynch DISCUSSION...JK AVIATION...MM