808
FXUS65 KFGZ 311616
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
916 AM MST Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Look for dry and warm weather along with afternoon
breezes out of the west to southwest each day into next week. Over
the weekend we will see slightly stronger gusts compared to
Thursday and Friday with a passing weak weather disturbance.

&&

.UPDATE...Other than a few high clouds noted across northern
Arizona this morning, the weather will remain mostly quiet today.
There is still a slim possibility of high-based showers occurring
later this afternoon, but that will be the main excitement for
today. Otherwise, look for afternoon temperatures in the 70s &
80s for many higher elevation areas and 90s for lower elevation
areas. A couple areas in southern Yavapai County might even reach
triple digits. No updates were made to the previous forecast, so
check out the previous discussion for more information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /323 AM MST/...Today will once again feature warm afternoon
conditions under zonal flow aloft. The main difference for today
will be the increase in cloud cover over higher terrain. CAMs have
continued to pick up on the weak instability and available
moisture to help produce mainly virga this afternoon: a few rain
drops making it to the surface under some of these elevated
showers can not be ruled out.

The forecast for the weekend remains unchanged. Temperatures will
take a small hit, at least in terms of afternoon highs, as a
trough passes us by far to the north. The only notable impact it
will have on our weather is bumping afternoon wind gusts up
slightly both days, gusting to 30 mph.

After this weekend, high pressure starts to push into the region,
upping our temperatures. Wednesday still looks to be the first day
that we see triple figures enter the forecast for lower
elevations. Meanwhile, 80s will become pretty predominate for the
higher elevations. While the high ups the heat, a low off the
southern California/Baja California coast continues to be a
contender in guidance, which would help usher moisture into
Arizona. Right now, any precipitation chances would hold until
~Thursday next week. Stay tuned for updates!

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 31/18Z through Saturday 01/18Z...VFR conditions
expected through the period. High based cumulus development
expected this afternoon with a few virga showers possible over
higher terrain. SW winds at 10-20 kts through 03Z, then becoming
light.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 01/18Z through Monday 03/18Z...Expect VFR
conditions. SW winds during the afternoons, 10-20 kts gusting
20-30 kts. Light and variable wind in the overnight and early
morning periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Saturday...Above average temperatures
and dry conditions continue. Scattered mid-level clouds this
afternoon may produce some VIRGA, or a sprinkle, over higher
terrain. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph each afternoon, with gusts to
25 mph. Gusts to 30 mph possible Saturday. Winds light and variable
in the overnight hours.

Sunday through Tuesday...Warm temperatures and dry conditions each
day. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph each afternoon, with gusts to 25
mph. Winds light and variable in the overnight hours.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny/RKR
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff