729
FXUS65 KFGZ 022015
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
115 PM MST Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A dry weather pattern will continue over Arizona
through the first half of the coming week. Expect temperatures to
warm to the hottest yet this season by Wednesday and Thursday. A
weak low moving northward toward the region could being a few
showers and thunderstorms and slightly cooler temperatures later
in the work week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The remainder of today will feature gusty SW winds
this afternoon as a trough continues to move east across the
region. Gusts will range 20-30 mph.

Monday and Tuesday will see high pressure gradually building into
the region with temperatures warming following this past
weekend`s brief drop in temperatures. The warming for Monday and
Tuesday will still be slowed thanks to upper level clouds as a
weak disturbance passes north of the region. Dry weather will
persist through the period.

Wednesday and Thursday will bring some of the warmest weather of
the season. Temperatures from Tuesday to Wednesday with high
pressure centered overhead will jump by 5 degrees or more and
likely warm another couple degrees by Thursday, becoming 10-15
degrees above normal. While this is happening, a low will be
setting itself up off the coast of Baja California. Because of
said low, it is worth noting that the deterministic NBM is
running at the high end of guidance and increasing mid to upper
level moisture could allow some cloud cover to start developing in
the afternoon Thursday, holding temperatures back slightly.

Friday remains somewhat of a buffer day: the aforementioned low
of the Baja California coast will start to slide north Friday
based on ensemble guidance. This, combined with the eastward
shifting high is resulting in some spread in models for conditions
Friday. Temperatures from the deterministic NBM are running very
high compared to the projected spread. More clouds and some
perception chances that day pending the moisture input from the
low could bring temperatures down a couple more degrees than
currently forecast. That drop in temperature would pull the need
for another day of heat related products...so stay tuned.

Moving into next weekend, confidence increases in precipitation
chances for the Southwest US. Coverage still doesn`t look
widespread combined with moisture remaining elevated so more
limited rainfall amounts from high based convection looks to be
the main story. If you look at the CPC graphics, they indicate
high odds in above normal precipitation chances for us, which
makes sense given that this time of year should typically be dry,
but don`t let said graphics trick you into believing we are going
to have widespread meaningful rainfall. In fact, with fuels
continuing to dry and the threat of lightning with high based
convection, new lightning starts from dry thunderstorms are a real
threat at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 02/18Z through Monday 03/18Z...Dry weather with
VFR conditions will prevail. SW to WSW winds today 10-15 kts
gusting up to 25 kts. Winds mainly 10 kts or less after 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Monday 03/18Z through Wednesday 05/18Z...VFR conditions
will last through the outlook period. Overnight winds will
continue to be light and variable, with winds on Monday afternoon
being W-SW 5-15 kts and Tuesday being W-NW 5-15 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Tuesday...A very dry pattern remains
in place with afternoon humidity ranging from 8-20%. Moderate
overnight recoveries will range from 30-70%. Southwest winds through
Monday of 15-25 mph, turning west to northwest at 10-20 mph on
Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...The warmest weather yet this season is
expected late this week with much lighter wind speeds. Daytime
humidity will range from 8-15%. A few isolated dry thunderstorms are
possible in the White Mountains by Thursday afternoon. These chances
spread west Friday into the weekend.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff