007
FXUS65 KFGZ 220524
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1024 PM MST Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Fair skies, seasonable temperatures, and periods of
gusty southwest winds will continue through the week.

&&

.UPDATE...Clear skies tonight with winds becoming light and
variable. This will allow us to radiate efficiently and
temperatures will be on the cold side, especially in the typical
cold spots. Additionally, with various wildfires and prescribed
burns ongoing, there will be haze and smoke hanging around. At
night, the haze/smoke will tend to linger and settle into the
lower lying areas and drainage basins so take precautions if are
sensitive to smoke/haze.

Forecast is on track so only minor edits were needed with the
update this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /402 PM MST/...As the trough that recently affected Arizona now
heads into the Midwest, dry westerly flow remains in its wake.
Mild temperatures, sunny skies, and relatively light winds are
the implications for our area. Although the weather is quiet,
several prescribed fires in the Flagstaff area either occurring
now or planned for this week will create areas of smoke and haze.
Those sensitive to poor air quality should exercise caution and
avoid time outdoors in affected locations. Smoke settles near the
surface after dark, so keep those windows shut to prevent the
pervasive smell of smoke from entering your home.

A kink in the upper level flow will bring an increase in
southwest winds Thursday through Saturday. Gusts at the surface
past 30 mph are forecast along and north of the Mogollon Rim each
day through this period. Along with the continued dry air,
critical fire weather conditions are possible in some areas.

Global model guidance points to stronger ridging to develop over
the Southwest next week. As a result, warmer temperatures are
increasingly likely in Arizona. Just a reminder, we are headed
into what is normally the hottest and driest time of year. With
the lack of cloud cover and high sun angle, extreme UV index
levels are a regular occurrence. Stay safe!

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 22/06Z through Thursday 23/06Z...VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period, outside
of reduced visibilities from HZ/FU due to prescribed burns. Light
and variable winds will continue overnight, with SW winds 10-20
kts gusting near 25 kts in the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 23/06Z through Saturday 25/06Z...VFR conditions
will persist through the outlook period, with periods of MVFR from
HZ/FU due to prescribed burns. Expect SW winds 15-25 kts gusting
30-40 kts each afternoon, with lighter winds overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Look for dry conditions
with mild temperatures. Expect southwest winds 10-20 mph gusting
near 25 mph on Wednesday, becoming 15-25 mph gusting near 35 mph on
Thursday. Minimum RH values between 8-20% each afternoon.

Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions with gradually cooling
temperatures through Saturday. Gusty southwest winds with gusts 30-
40 mph during the afternoon on Friday and Saturday, with lighter
winds returning by Sunday. Minimum RH values 10-20% expected each
afternoon. Near-critical fire weather conditions possible across the
Little Colorado River Valley on Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola/Benji
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff