985
FXUS65 KFGZ 210822
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
122 AM MST Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Look for dry, breezy, and mild weather through the
rest of the week with near normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A dry (at least for Arizona) longwave troughing
pattern will remain over the western states into the coming
weekend.

For Today and Wednesday...Surface pressure gradients relax some
compared to Monday for more typical afternoon breezes from the
west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph locally gusting to near 30 mph.
There will be a bit of haze and smoke here and there across our
area due to various wildfires and prescribed burning. Otherwise,
look for mainly clear skies with just a few clouds at times near
the Arizona/Utah border. Daytime temperatures will warm some
today, especially over higher elevation locations, to just below
seasonal averages then remain steady on Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...A pair of dry shortwave troughs whip
through the longwave pattern over the west. The result for
northern Arizona will be stronger surface pressure gradients. Look
for afternoon winds to increase becoming southwest at 15 to 25
mph gusting to 30 to 40 mph. More windy than breezy for most of
us in northern Arizona. The strongest of these winds will be on
Thursday and Friday but could linger into Saturday over eastern
portions of the state. Otherwise, mainly clear skies will
continue with perhaps a few degrees of cooling to daytime
temperature with the passage of those shortwave troughs.

From Sunday into early next week...A more persistent high pressure
system than we have seen in a while could develop over the
southwest for a distinct warmup. A little far out to have much
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 21/06Z through Wednesday 22/06Z...VFR with
winds less than 10 kts. Increasing SW winds 10-15 kts with gusts
20-25 kts after 17Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 22/06Z through Friday 24/06Z...VFR with SW-W
winds 10-20 kts, gusting 20-30 kts each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Dry conditions with mild
temperatures. West/southwest winds 10-20 mph, becoming southwest on
Wednesday. Afternoon minimum RH values 8-18%.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry conditions with gradually cooling
temperatures. Gusty southwest winds with gusts 30-40 mph during the
afternoon on Thursday and Friday, with lighter winds returning by
Saturday. Minimum RH values 10-20 percent expected each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff