246
FXUS65 KFGZ 112256
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
356 PM MST Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Expect hot temperatures for the next couple of days,
with a brief cooling trend on Friday from the onset of a low-
pressure system. Slight chances for showers/thunderstorms returns
to the forecast by Thursday and continues through Friday. Dry,
warm, and breezy conditions return for the weekend/into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An area of high pressure will continue to bring hot
temperatures this week, with daytime highs averaging 5-10 degrees
above normal. As a result of the increasing temperatures, the
Excessive Heat Warning for many areas below 4000` remains valid
for Wednesday 10 AM MST through Thursday 8 PM MST. It`s highly
encouraged to avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of
the day (~10AM-8PM) and stay hydrated.

Relief from the heat is likely in store for much of northern
Arizona late Thursday through Friday as a low pressure system
moves inland from off the southern California Coast. There is not
an abundant amount of moisture associated with this disturbance,
but there looks to be enough forcing to get a few isolated to
scattered showers going. The U of A WRF model shows precipitation
chances increase west to east across our CWA as early as Thursday
morning and lasting through Friday. Which brings up the potential
for temperatures to not get as warm on Thursday, but that will
all depend on exact timing/moisture availability/and location of
precipitation. If temperatures do not have the opportunity to
reach the highs we are projecting, the Excessive Heat Warning
could be expired early.

Outside of precipitation associated with the incoming low,
increased winds are also expected. Although winds are below any
product threshold/criteria, there will be continued elevated fire
weather concerns. Ideally, relative humidities will increase
enough with the slight up-tick in moisture, but fuels are fairly
dry across northern Arizona and any storm with enough instability
could produce lightning - potentially leading to a natural fire
start.

Warm temperatures will quickly return over the weekend, but a
cooler/zonal looks to return over much of the Southwest by Monday.
This will keep daytime highs near normal for this time of year,
and winds on the breezy side.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 12/00Z through Thursday 13/00Z...VFR
conditions persisting. W/SW winds 5-10kts gusting to 20 kts will
diminish after 02Z, becoming light and variable overnight. W/SW
winds returning after 16Z Wednesday, but roughly 5 kts stronger
than today.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 13/00Z through Saturday 15/00Z...VFR conditions,
outside of brief periods of MVFR in -SHRA/-TSRA after 00Z Friday,
but could be earlier Thursday depending on how models continue to
trend with moisture. Gusty, erratic winds possible near
thunderstorms. Winds west/southwest 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30
kts each afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry and hot weather,
with afternoon RH values from 5-15%. West/southwest wind gusts 15-25
mph on Wednesday, increasing to 20-30 mph on Thursday. Chances (10-
30%) for isolated, showers and thunderstorms begin late Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...On Friday, a passing low pressure system
will bring slightly cooler and more cloudy weather, but afternoon
humidity will remain in the 8-16% range at most places. Chances (20-
50%) for showers, and a slight chance of thunderstorms, are forecast
primarily along and north of the Mogollon Rim. Winds will shift to
the west/northwest, expect in the vicinity of storms where erratic
outflow winds are possible. Dry and warmer weather, along with
breezy southwest winds return Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ Wednesday to 8
PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...RKR
FIRE WEATHER...RR

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff