416
FXUS65 KFGZ 091152
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
452 AM MST Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Seasonable temperatures today and Monday will trend
back upward by Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Expect mainly dry
conditions, aside from isolated showers and thunderstorms over
eastern Arizona this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today, a weak s/wv will interact with our former
ridge, now displaced into New Mexico. Some mid-level moisture is
noted advecting into eastern Arizona this morning. This will allow
for a slight increase in PW, which may be all this s/wv needs to
generate some isolated convection this afternoon. Nothing impactful
is expected.

That is about all the action we see this forecast period, aside from
another warming trend due mid-week. Current solutions have us right
on the border of another EHW, Tuesday looks marginal, but one may be
needed for Wednesday. We will wait another day on this, potentially
issuing heat products for next week Sunday night, coinciding with
our weekly partner emails.

That`s it for now, in summary, seasonable and mainly dry through
Monday, then heating up again.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 09/12Z through Monday 10/12Z...VFR conditions
persist under SCT to BKN high clouds. Mostly dry through the TAF
period besides a slight chance for TS/-SHRA near and south of a
KSOW- KSJN line that will extend northward towards KRQE after 20Z.
Light, variable surface winds will become SW at 10-15 kts, gusting
near 20 kts after 17Z-19Z.

OUTLOOK...Monday 10/12Z through Wednesday 12/12Z...VFR conditions
continue with W-SW surface winds becoming a bit breezy each
afternoon, generally at 5-15 kts, gusting near 20 kts. Light,
variable winds return overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Monday...Slightly cooler today with
southwest winds at 10 to 15 mph, gusting 20 to 25 mph. A warming
trend begins Monday with lighter winds. Afternoon RHs in the mid
teens to single digits both days with a few showers and storms
possible for portions of eastern Arizona.

Tuesday through Thursday...Warming continues Tuesday, peaking
Wednesday with high temperatures around 10 degrees above normal.
Winds also gradually increase each afternoon with the strongest
winds Thursday. Expect elevated fire weather conditions due to these
stronger winds and mid teen to single digits RH values.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Mazon
FIRE WEATHER...Mazon

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff