158
FXUS64 KFWD 250613
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
113 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Sunday/

Mid level heights will slowly build today in response to a strong
northern stream shortwave trough dropping south into the
Intermountain West, which will then lift out across the Central
and Northern Plains tonight. This will result in increased
subsidence with a strengthening cap aloft outside of the Big
Country into the Red River Valley and points north. This will mean
a drier day overall with continued above normal temperatures and
tropical- like humidity across the entire area. Highs will be in
the lower 90s with dew point values in the 70s. This will put much
of Central Texas right around 105 degrees, which is borderline
Heat Advisory criteria and usually these are done when consecutive
days of excessive heat conditions are expected. A last minute
decision will be made regarding any heat highlights.

A few CAMs are showing that the capping inversion may be weak
enough for widely scattered, strong to severe discrete storms by
early evening across the far northwest and Red River counties.
This would be a very "conditional" risk wholly dependent on
heating and being grazed by better large-scale ascent to the
north. If a storm or two were to go up, high surface-based
instability and 50 kt westerly deep layer shear could result in a
brief 2-3 hour window during the early evening hours up across
that area of the CWA. Very steep mid level lapse rates will remain
confined west of here and combined with strengthening CINH east
toward I-35, intensity and life-span of any storms would be much
more short-lived than in previous days. We`ll continue to refine
these low (10%-25%) rain chances in forecasts as we move through
the morning hours into midday today. Otherwise, a breezy and warm
night tonight with stratus mainly impacting Central and East Texas
Sunday morning thanks to a strong, but more veered LLJ > 40 kts
overnight.

The shortwave trough lifting across the Plains toward the Great
Lakes and Mississippi River Valley on Sunday will help mid level
heights slowly fall across North Texas particularly. The main
problem for storm coverage and development would be the continued
cap around, as well as only a weak surface trough moving from the
west. For now, I`ll have an isolated, late day chances across
areas north of I-20. Again, another very "conditional" day and if
a storm can go up, then reaching strong to severe limits wouldn`t
be too hard to achieve. High temperatures will push the century
mark for a few areas and this would match up with a few records
achieved during the infamous heatwave of 1980. Something to
watch. However, the eastward progressing trough (or dryline) will
help to drop dew points much lower than seen the past week, so at
least heat indices and humidity would be more tolerable to an
extent. The main thing to keep in mind for the holiday weekend is
to stay hydrated, wear light weight and colored clothing, and take
frequent breaks from the outdoors when possible.

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 310 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024/
/Next Week/

A brief rain-free interlude will begin the week before a more
active pattern returns.

A shortwave transiting the Central Plains on Sunday will drag a
dryline deep into North and Central Texas, potentially reaching
the I-35 corridor. However, a strong cap and the lack of upper
support will keep the radar scope quiet. Areas to the west of the
boundary will see temperatures soar into the mid and upper 90s,
but with noticeably lower humidity. Areas to the east will have
lower afternoon temperatures, but the humidity will push heat
index values back above 100.

As the Central Plains disturbance departs, it will allow a late-
season front to push south of the Red River. Thunderstorm chances
may return as early as Monday evening as the front moves deeper
into the region. Cooler, albeit near-normal, daytime temperatures
will return by Tuesday with even milder temperatures following
during the cloudier latter half of the week. Although the boundary
will experience gradual frontolysis, daily storm chances will
prevail the remainder of the week as periodic disturbances glide
along the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge. This seasonal
anticyclone will remain anchored over Mexico as meteorological
summer begins next weekend. Its transition to a more poleward
latitude, which brings an end to our spring rainy season,
typically occurs closer to the solstice, which is still weeks
away.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

Challenges will be deteriorating flight rules at all airports
(particularly the western D10...AFW, FTW, DFW, as well as ACT)
after 09z-11z this morning. BL cooling during this time will
result in cigs dropping into low MVFR BLO 020, then IFR with
patchy MVFR/BR Vsbys between 12z-15z.

D10 airports will be a slow improvement back to MVFR by midday,
with VFR thereafter. SE winds less than 10 kts will drop to 3-5
kts at sunrise, before increasing from the SSE 10 to 15 kts after
18z and continuing through Saturday evening with gusts to between
25-30 kts. Though isolated strong-severe TS are anticipated from
just NW of the D10 to the Red River, confidence and coverage
remain too low to introduce into the later TAF periods attm.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  93  76  99  73 /  50  10  20  20   5
Waco                73  92  75  94  71 /  40   0  10   5   5
Paris               69  88  73  91  68 /  40  10  30  20  10
Denton              72  92  75  97  68 /  30  20  20  20   5
McKinney            72  90  76  95  71 /  40  20  20  20   5
Dallas              72  93  76  99  73 /  50  10  20  20   5
Terrell             71  90  74  93  72 /  50   5  30  10   5
Corsicana           74  92  74  95  74 /  60   0  20  10   5
Temple              74  92  74  94  73 /  40   0  10   5   5
Mineral Wells       71  94  74  98  68 /  20  20  20   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$