Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
000 FXUS64 KFWD 111031 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 531 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Friday will be hot and muggy, with afternoon heat indices of 100-105. - Unsettled weather returns this weekend, with scattered thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening. Isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1241 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ /Through Saturday/ A strong shortwave trough dropping southeast through the Plains will force a cold front south through Oklahoma Friday night and Saturday. Another seasonably hot and humid day can be expected Friday out ahead of the front, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s and heat indices from the mid 90s to around 105. A broken line of convection will likely push south through Oklahoma along or ahead of the front Friday night into Saturday morning. Storms may weaken in the morning as a modest low level jet mixes out, but should redevelop late morning into Saturday afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes. Activity would be focused along outflow left over from the collapsing storms, with said redevelopment occurring near the Red River and/or Highway 380 corridor. In addition, an active seabreeze appears likely Saturday afternoon, resulting in a second area of scattered showers and storms across Central Texas. Those two areas will hence have the highest POPs, but will still include at least a slight chance of storms across the rest of the region in the event that the seabreeze pushes farther north or outflow farther south. Severe weather is not likely, but a few of the stronger storms will be capable of 50 MPH wind gusts, heavy rain, and localized flooding. All activity will start weakening after sunset and should dissipate around midnight. 30 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 1241 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/ /Saturday Night Onward/ The main shortwave trough responsible for Saturday`s convection will continue its journey southeast into the Ohio Valley Saturday night and Sunday. However, a weak upper low, which is progged to develop near the base of the trough, will be left behind and become quasi-stationary somewhere across North Texas on Sunday. Additional rounds of scattered showers and storms will be the result for Sunday, and possibly into Monday. The highest POPs will be on Sunday when the low is parked overhead, with slightly lower POPs on Monday as the low starts to lift northeast of the region. Weak flow aloft will preclude a severe weather threat both Sunday and Monday, but heavy rain and localized flooding will again be a possibility just about anywhere due to the expectation of slow storm motions. The low will accelerate northeast into the Midwest Monday night and Tuesday, shutting off rain chances for the most part as a mid level ridge builds in from the east in its wake. There may still be isolated thunderstorms each afternoon, but increasing subsidence should keep most locations seasonably hot and rain free mid to late next week. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ Through Tonight... MVFR ceilings in the Hill Country have thus far struggled to make any northward progress, but are still slowly encroaching on the Waco area. Will hence keep the TEMPO for MVFR in at KACT through 16Z. The rest of the region will be VFR, and only have to contend with a breezy south wind through tonight. Saturday... A stronger northward stratus surge Saturday morning will warrant the introduction of MVFR starting 09Z at KACT and 12Z in the extended portion of the DFW TAF. We will eventually need to tackle the timing of potential thunderstorms late Saturday, but any impacts will be beyond the current TAF cycle. 30 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 94 76 93 75 90 / 0 5 30 40 40 Waco 92 75 91 74 91 / 0 0 30 20 40 Paris 93 75 93 73 91 / 0 5 30 30 40 Denton 95 76 93 73 89 / 0 5 30 40 50 McKinney 95 76 93 75 90 / 0 5 30 40 50 Dallas 96 76 94 76 92 / 0 5 30 30 40 Terrell 95 75 93 74 92 / 0 5 30 20 40 Corsicana 95 76 94 76 93 / 5 5 30 20 30 Temple 93 74 91 74 91 / 5 5 30 20 40 Mineral Wells 95 74 92 73 88 / 0 0 30 50 50 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$