Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
479 FXUS64 KFWD 100527 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1227 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thursday and Friday will be hot and muggy, with afternoon heat indices of 100-105 along and east of the I-35 corridor. - Unsettled weather returns this weekend, with chances (20-40%) of thunderstorms each afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Friday/ A weak trough aloft responsible for the past few evenings` convection currently bisects the CWA from northeast to southwest. This feature will shift slowly east and south over the next few days while undergoing further weakening. Diurnally driven convection will likewise shift farther south and east each day, becoming confined to areas mainly east of I-35 on Thursday and mostly Louisiana by Friday. North and Central Texas will subsequently have a day or two of largely rain-free weather and seasonable temperatures to end the work week, with lows in the 70s and highs in the lower to mid 90s. 30 && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /This Weekend into Next Week/ An unseasonably strong upper trough will sweep across the Plains Friday night and Saturday, sending a cold front southward through Oklahoma. The front itself will likely stall somewhere near the Red River, but thunderstorm outflow will push farther south into North Texas and become the focus for scattered showers and storms Saturday afternoon and evening. Convection associated with the outflow boundary should occur along and north of I-20, but additional scattered storms are possible across Central Texas where model guidance is indicating an active seabreeze. Activity would then dissipate around midnight as instability wanes. The upper trough will continue east into the Ohio Valley Saturday night, but another weak positive tilt trough aloft will linger overhead on Sunday in its wake. Scattered thunderstorms will be a good possibility as a result, both Sunday and Monday, during the afternoon and evening hours. The threat for severe weather will be low due to the absence of deep layer shear, but 50 MPH wind gusts and heavy rain will be possible in a few of these storms. CLouds, precipitation and convective outflow will otherwise hold temperatures a few degrees below normal during the Saturday to Monday period. Seasonably hot and drier weather can then be expected Tuesday of next week as the trough lifts off to the northeast and a ridge strengthens overhead. An even stronger upper trough and cold front will then bring additional storm chances to the region, along with a possible return to below normal temperatures, mid to late next week. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ Convection came to an end a little while ago and the system responsible should be far enough east on Thursday to avoid any direct airport impacts Thursday afternoon and evening. It also looks like Thursday morning stratocumulus should remain east of all TAF sites, though will keep an eye out for the off chance that all recent guidance is incorrect. Otherwise, south winds of 5 to 10 kt will increase to 15-20 kt Thursday afternoon and remain fairly breezy Thursday night. 30 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 94 77 93 75 / 0 0 0 20 20 Waco 73 91 74 90 75 / 0 0 0 20 10 Paris 75 94 74 94 73 / 5 0 0 20 30 Denton 75 95 75 93 74 / 0 0 0 20 30 McKinney 76 95 76 93 75 / 0 0 0 20 30 Dallas 77 95 77 95 76 / 0 0 0 20 20 Terrell 75 94 74 93 75 / 0 0 0 20 20 Corsicana 75 94 76 94 75 / 0 0 0 20 10 Temple 73 92 74 91 73 / 0 5 0 20 10 Mineral Wells 73 94 74 92 73 / 0 0 0 20 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$