735
FXUS64 KFWD 290057
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
757 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Afternoon/

A brief lull in activity is underway across North and Central
Texas after busy 24 hours. Enjoy this peaceful weather as this
will once again be changing in the coming hours.

Another shortwave is inching its way closer to our region with
clusters of thunderstorms currently spanning from southeastern
Colorado through central Coahuila MX. These clusters are now
gradually making their way east and should arrive within our area
in the next few hours.

There remains some uncertainty in the eastward extent each
cluster of thunderstorms will reach as we have not fully recovered
from today`s rounds of thunderstorms. The storms currently near
Childress are moving into a more stable environment that lacks
appreciable low-level moisture. The expectation is that these
storms continue moving eastward and should remain sub-severe.
Can`t rule out some small hail and gusty winds. The other cluster
of storms is currently across northern Oklahoma and will begin
taking southeastward dive in the next few hours. Depending on the
evolution of the complex before it, the second will also provide
another opportunity for thunderstorms closer to sunrise tomorrow
morning. The morning round of thunderstorms may have a bit more
instability to work with as the main shortwave moves overhead with
slightly steeper mid-level lapse rates in place.

Comparing tomorrow`s environment with what we experienced this
morning, the atmosphere will have about half the instability to
work with leading up to sunrise tomorrow. Additionally, shear
parameters are likely to remain much lower compared to this
morning. A repeat of of this morning is not expected, however, a
stormy morning rush hour will be possible if the storms in the
Panhandle congeal into an MCS and survive the 300 mile trip.

Tomorrow`s forecast remains a bit tricky given the uncertainties
tonight. With northwesterly flow aloft and additional disturbances
moving overhead, there will be continued rain chances through much
of the day. Although the severe weather potential is expected to
be low, lapse rates will continue to remain fairly steep,
therefore, a strong to isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out
tomorrow. All storms are expected to remain elevated keeping the
main threats to small hail and gusty winds.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 221 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024/
/Wednesday Night through Tuesday/

Unsettled weather will continue across North and Central Texas
through the weekend with multiple chances for thunderstorms and
severe weather. It does appear that a building ridge aloft early
next week will decease storm chances.

Subtle mid-level ridging Wednesday night should limit storm
chances overall. However, lingering moisture and the potential for
random outflow boundaries across the region warrant at least some
low chance PoPs. Thunderstorm chances will increase Thursday
through Friday with subtle shortwave energy moving through nearly
zonal flow aloft. The best storm chances will likely be overnight
Thursday/Friday morning when the steering flow becomes a bit more
northwesterly, allowing a storm complex to move southeast out of
Oklahoma. Storms should push into South Texas Friday evening while
a subtle ridge builds in from the west. The ridge will briefly
become centered over the region Saturday, resulting in decreasing
storm chances and slightly warmer temperatures. Unfortunately, the
"quieter" weather will not last long with a good potential for
West Texas dryline storms to organize and march eastward Saturday
night/Sunday morning due to yet another shortwave moving in on the
heels of the departing ridge. The potential for severe weather
will exist with wind and hail being the most likely hazards. It
is difficult to say how active Sunday afternoon will be but the
most likely scenario is that subsidence will be left in the wake
of the departing storms, limiting afternoon/evening storm
formation.

It does appear the pattern will attempt to change early next week
with a higher amplitude ridge building from the Desert Southwest
to the Central Plains. This pattern will temporarily increase
northwest flow aloft, which often carries afternoon storms from
the Central High Plains into North Texas during the overnight and
early morning hours. The most likely day/time for this to occur
would be overnight Monday into Tuesday morning.

Temperatures Thursday through Sunday will be around or just below
seasonal normals with highs mainly in the 80s. The building ridge
early next week will push temperatures into the 90s for most. A
lack of any noteworthy cold fronts will keep a humid airmass in
place through early next week.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Concerns...TS impacts tonight, potentially lingering through
tomorrow morning. MVFR arrives closer to sunrise through the late
morning.


A line of thunderstorms across western OK to the TX Panhandle
continues moving east, knocking on the doorsteps of the UKW
cornerpost. This line is expected to remain on an east to
southeast trajectory, reaching the D10 airspace closer to 05Z. As
long as this line holds together, expect an arrival time to the
Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex closer to 06Z and Waco around 07Z.
This cluster will likely move east of the terminals within 2
hours of its arrival, leaving behind MVFR through the rest of the
morning hours.

Given some uncertainties in the evolution of this complex, there
may be a secondary area of thunderstorms that may approach the
I-35 corridor closer to sunrise. Given the low confidence of this
occurring, the storm potential will be captured with a VCTS
mention until higher confidence is reached. Beyond tomorrow
morning, the probability of any one terminal experiencing storms
in the afternoon remains too low to include in the TAF. This will
continue to be monitored through the rest of the night and
adjustments to the forecast will be made.

Another round of low clouds is expected beyond 00Z Thursday,
likely arriving at Waco first, then across North Texas. This has
been included in the extended portion of the KDFW TAF.


Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  84  72  85  69 /  50  60  40  40  50
Waco                68  85  71  83  69 /  50  50  40  50  50
Paris               66  80  67  80  67 /  30  70  40  40  30
Denton              67  82  69  84  67 /  60  70  40  40  50
McKinney            67  82  70  83  69 /  50  70  40  40  40
Dallas              69  85  72  84  69 /  50  60  40  40  50
Terrell             67  83  70  84  69 /  40  60  40  40  40
Corsicana           69  85  72  85  71 /  40  60  40  50  40
Temple              68  85  71  85  69 /  50  50  30  40  40
Mineral Wells       67  82  70  86  68 /  60  60  40  40  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$