431
FXUS64 KFWD 170019
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
719 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Afternoon/

At the time of writing this discussion, storms have pushed south
along a surface boundary/pseudo-warm front that is currently
positioned over Southern Texas. Behind it, isolated to scattered
showers with occasional lightning strikes here and there will
continue to migrate south and east as the bulk of this convective
activity retreats well to our southeast along this boundary. These
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to be
possible through the evening hours before the majority of our
coverage area experiences a brief lull in precipitation.

There is a low chance for another cluster of storms to push
through portions of North and Central Texas into the overnight
hours, as highlighted by some of the latest hi-res guidance. The
main threat with this activity will be marginally severe hail, and
perhaps gusty to marginally severe winds. It is also very likely
that this activity will be mostly outflow dominant and elevated in
nature, which would continue to lessen any severe potential
considerably. With all of this being said, continue to stay
weather aware this evening as we may not be totally out of the
woods just yet, especially regarding our flooding potential.

Speaking of flooding, a Flood Watch will remain in effect this
evening through 7 AM Friday morning. Additional rainfall has
already reaggravated flooding issues today across portions of
North and Central Texas where this Watch is in effect. With highly
saturated soils, near instant run-off conditions will exist
through the overnight hours. This will only serve to exacerbate
flooding concerns, especially if additional activity pushes
through these same areas tonight. In addition, river responses to
more rainfall will prolong any river flooding issues that are
currently ongoing, which will also be worth monitoring through
tonight as well.

The upper level low that is responsible for the large-scale
forcing for ascent leading to this period of active weather will
be slow to move across our coverage area, with activity
potentially lingering through Friday afternoon. This has a low
chance of materializing one or more additional clusters of
thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening hours on Friday.
Because of this, low PoPs have been maintained through Friday
afternoon to account for this potential. For more information
regarding this activity through Friday evening, please see the
long term discussion below.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 300 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024/
/Friday Night Onward/

Any lingering showers and storms (from the slow-moving upper low
responsible for the ongoing precipitation) will end Friday night
as the system transitions into an open wave while exiting to our
east. Light winds, clearing skies, and shallow moisture will
likely lead to patchy fog development Saturday morning.
Visibilities should quickly improve mid to late morning, followed
by a warm and sunny Saturday afternoon with highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s.

A warming trend will continue for the rest of the weekend into
early next week as a mid level ridge strengthens overhead.
Temperatures will be generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal
Sunday through Tuesday, with highs ranging from the upper 80s in
the southeast to the middle 90s across the western zones. A deep
southerly fetch will draw Gulf moisture northward through the
region, increasing dewpoints by a degree or two each day. Hot and
humid conditions will be the result, with Tuesday being
particularly oppressive as heat indices climb to around 100 for
areas along and south of I-20.

The ridge will actually begin to weaken on Tuesday as a shortwave
trough moves from the Rockies into the Plains. This will send a
cold front south into North Texas Tuesday late afternoon or
evening. Compressional warming ahead of the front is another
factor contributing to the hot and humid weather expected on
Tuesday.

The front will eventually provide a focus for shower and
thunderstorm development by Tuesday evening, aided by ascent
associated with the shortwave. The boundary will stall somewhere
across the CWA, providing a focus for additional thunderstorm
development as a second shortwave approaches on Wednesday.
Precipitation will wind down Wednesday evening, followed by yet
another opportunity for convection on Thursday as a third
shortwave moves east across the forecast area.

Strong flow aloft and abundant deep layer shear should allow some
of these storms to become severe in each case given sufficient
levels of instability (which will be in good supply each
afternoon). We will gather better details regarding timing,
location, and the specific severe weather threats as better
resolution model data becomes available early next week. Either
way, the front itself or the resulting precip should provide some
relief from the heat for the mid to late next week period.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Concerns...Low Storm Chances, MVFR/IFR Ceilings Into Tomorrow.

Quite a messy stretch of weather for the aviation folks out there
will continue through much of the morning and even into the early
afternoon hours on Friday. The primary concerns to those flying
are the low storm chances this evening and from 03-07z tonight,
along with rapidly falling ceilings down to MVFR/IFR. Confidence
in specific impacts right over the D10 terminals remains low,
with higher confidence across the Waco site. The highest potential
for impacts will be for arrivals routing through the Glen Rose
and Cedar Creek corner posts through the evening into the
overnight hours. Ceilings by Friday morning will likely be IFR
across much of the region, with potential for minor visibility
restrictions as patchy fog has a low chance of setting up across
the TAF sites into the morning.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  82  66  89  69 /  40  20  10   0   0
Waco                65  82  65  87  69 /  40   5  10   5   0
Paris               63  80  63  85  65 /  50  40  20   5   0
Denton              62  80  62  88  66 /  40  30  10   0   0
McKinney            63  80  63  87  66 /  40  30  20   5   0
Dallas              65  83  66  89  69 /  40  20  10   5   0
Terrell             63  80  64  87  66 /  40  20  20   5   0
Corsicana           66  82  66  88  69 /  50  10  10   5   0
Temple              64  83  64  88  67 /  40   5  10   5   0
Mineral Wells       63  80  62  89  67 /  50  20  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday morning for TXZ101>104-116>122-
130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$