847
FXUS64 KFWD 300115
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
815 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Afternoon/

Subtle ridging aloft kept all precipitation away from the region
today and will also lead to a storm free night. With the ridge
extending just a bit further north than previously expected,
there has been some change in the forecast regarding the
previously anticipated morning convection.

Looking upstream, the area that we`re watching for an eventual
MCS is struggling to get its act together. Storms across
southeastern Colorado continue moving eastward with a weakening
trend happening at this time. As long as the storms in CO continue
moving eastward, the eventual arrival into North Texas continues
to get pushed back. A southeastward trajectory is expected later
tonight with the development of a cold pool and the strengthening
of a low-level jet. The low-level jet should gradually weaken as
we approach sunrise, making the evolution of this MCS highly
uncertain. If this line does not weaken across Central Oklahoma
overnight, we could be looking at a line of storms approaching the
Red River late tomorrow morning. With afternoon destabilization,
MLCAPE around 4000 J/Kg and plenty of shear in place, damaging
winds and large hail will be the main concerns along the leading
edge of the line. The question remains just how far
south/southeast this line will push into our region. If it pushes
across the entire region during the afternoon hours, a second
round tomorrow night appears less likely.

However, if the aforementioned line struggles to push much
further than the Red River during the late morning/early afternoon
period, we`ll have a residual boundary that will provide a
concentrated area of ascent. If this is the case, isolated to
scattered afternoon storms will be possible across North and
Central Texas with a more significant line of storms approaching
from the west overnight. The overnight storms would originate from
a dryline across West Texas in the afternoon, congealing into a
complex late in the evening. Similar to the other scenario above,
the atmosphere will be fairly volatile with plenty of instability
in place. Also, the overnight complex will have additional mid-
level forcing for ascent as a shortwave moves overhead. Large hail
and bowing line segments capable of damaging winds would be the
main threats. Although the overall tornado probabilities remain
low, one cannot be ruled out with either scenario.

This line of storms will likely shift east of our region tomorrow
night, however, additional precipitation is expected Friday. For
more info regarding this weekend`s forecast, see the long-term
discussion below.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 229 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024/
/Thursday Night Onward/

By Thursday night, the initial afternoon complex mentioned in the
short term discussion above should be exiting our northwest
counties. However just upstream of the departing activity, another
MCS will be making its way southeast across the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles. This cluster is expected to move across North and
Central Texas after midnight into the early morning hours, likely
impacting the morning commute. Severe storms will be possible with
large hail and damaging winds the main threats. There is a lower
tertiary tornado threat with this round of activity, especially
along the leading edge of the line where a couple spin-up tornadoes
are possible. An additional cluster of storms looks to move in
behind the morning line over Friday afternoon. This line would also
have the potential to become severe, if the atmosphere does not end
up too worked over from the previous activity. PWATs close to 2"
will promote heavy rain during this time. With already saturated
soils across the region, there will be an increased concern for
flash flooding going into the weekend.

While the Southern Plains will generally stay within the top of the
broad longwave ridge across Latin America, multiple shortwave
disturbances will ride along the apex through next week bringing on
and off storm chances for North and Central Texas. Ensemble guidance
shows increased severe probabilities across the region through the
weekend for our area, so we`ll need to keep that in mind as we go
through this week. CSU severe probs also highlight our CWA each day.
For now, keep an eye on the forecast each day and have your safety
plan in place. Make sure to have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings including your cell phone, weather radio, and outdoor
warning sirens.

Last but not least, temperatures over next week will increase back
into the mid 80s and 90s. While ambient temperatures are near normal
for this time of year, persistently high dewpoints in the low-mid
70s (close to record high values for DFW) will push heat indices
closer to around 100 each afternoon Monday-Wednesday. Make sure to
practice heat safety as we head into the first week of
meteorological summer!

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR arrives tonight. Showers and storm chances begin
mid day tomorrow. Higher storm coverage expected tomorrow night.

Low-level southerly flow will continue across the region tonight
with surface southeasterly winds expected. Another stratus
intrusion is expected tonight, arriving at KACT shortly after
midnight and North Texas TAF sites closer to 10Z.

The previously anticipated cluster of thunderstorms that was
expected to impact all North Texas TAF sites is looking less
likely, thus TSRA was removed from the TAF. Additionally, the VCTS
period was pushed back a few hours given the latest CAM trends.
With no significant morning precipitation expected, afternoon low-
level mixing should help push ceilings into the VFR category by
early afternoon. A few showers or even a storm or two cannot be
ruled out around the North Texas terminals, however, coverage is
expected to remain isolated through the evening.

Beyond 00Z tomorrow, confidence is increasing that a line of
thunderstorms will emerge from West Texas, impacting all of North
and Central Texas. There remains some timing uncertainties,
therefore, this line of storms has yet to be mentioned explicitly
in the DFW TAF. Once models converge on better timing, this will
be added to the forecast.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  87  69  81  70 /  10  40  80  80  40
Waco                71  87  70  82  70 /  10  30  80  80  40
Paris               67  81  67  78  67 /  10  70  60  90  50
Denton              68  86  66  80  67 /  10  50  80  80  40
McKinney            69  84  67  79  68 /  10  60  80  80  50
Dallas              71  87  69  81  70 /  10  40  80  80  40
Terrell             69  86  68  80  69 /  10  50  80  80  40
Corsicana           71  87  71  83  71 /  10  40  80  80  40
Temple              71  87  71  83  70 /  10  30  80  70  40
Mineral Wells       69  87  68  80  68 /  10  30  70  70  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$