Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KFWD 251737
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1137 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
A DRY COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS
TODAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS RESULTING FROM A SHARP PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW DECOUPLES. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE DFW TAF. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
AT ALL LOCATIONS.

30

&&

.UPDATE...
A DRY AND BREEZY AFTERNOON IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS AS A SURFACE LOW
MOVES SLOWLY EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN TIGHT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ALONG WITH SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30
MPH. THESE SPEEDS ARE JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND MOST LOCATIONS
ARE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME. WE STILL EXPECT THE WARMING TO SLOW THIS AFTERNOON AS SOLAR
HEATING IS OFFSET BE SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/
TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY OF NORTHWEST FLOW BEFORE DEEP RIDGING
ALOFT TAKES HOLD. UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A COLD AND WET WEEKEND
TO START FEBRUARY.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH POSTFRONTAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS ARE IN
THE 40S AND 50S...THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE TODAY. BUT
WITH GUSTY WINDS...HIGHS IN THE 60S WILL FEEL CHILLY THIS
AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN BACKING MONDAY...AND THE DESCENDING
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S IN AREAS WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
NORTHERLY 850-700MB FLOW ON MONDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TUESDAY
WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S REGIONWIDE. DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT VEERING ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT MAY USHER IN HIGH CLOUDINESS THAT WOULD HALT THE
WARMING TREND. BUT WITH ADEQUATE SUNSHINE...PARTICULARLY IF THE
SURFACE WINDS CAN VEER SUFFICIENTLY...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COULD
END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH
GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MOIST UPGLIDE ABOVE THE
COOL SURFACE LAYER...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A CHILLY RAINY
SATURDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY AMONG EXTENDED GUIDANCE WITH THE EXTENT OF
POSTFRONTAL PRECIPITATION. WITHOUT ADEQUATE MOISTENING OF THE
SURFACE LAYER SATURDAY...THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIR WOULD
SIMPLY CREATE A DEEPER DRY LAYER THAT WOULD YIELD LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP. THIS IS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE GFS MAINTAINS A
WETTER SCENARIO...ALBEIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE
RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND (THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST
ONLY RUNS THROUGH SATURDAY)...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING REGIONWIDE.

25



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  38  69  46  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              67  38  69  42  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             63  36  62  41  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            65  36  68  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          64  36  67  41  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            65  40  68  47  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           64  38  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         66  39  67  44  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            68  39  70  43  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  36  71  40  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

30/79





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.