Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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310
FXUS64 KFWD 252009
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
309 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A large swath of deep Gulf moisture has invaded North and Central
Texas today in response to a slow-moving inverted trough which has
finally worked its way in from the east. This is all occurring as
an upper level ridge which brought the triple digit heat over the
weekend retrogrades westward into the 4-corners region. With the
shear axis aloft and a moist and unstable airmass now in place,
the ingredients for diurnal convection will come together each
day across the forecast area for most of this week.

A deck of mid level clouds which moved overhead this morning
prolonged the onset of storms today (compared to what earlier
guidance indicated), but once the mid 90s convective temps were
reached we have seen scattered convection bubbling across the
region. We should continue to see a gradual increase in coverage
through late afternoon, before the peak heating hours wane and
storms taper off. One concern with these storms will be locally
heavy rainfall and possible flooding due to the high moisture
environment in place and slow southwest cell motion. Fortunately,
it appears that the flood threat would remain isolated due to
the scattered and pulse nature of the thunderstorm activity. An
additional concern will be downburst winds as occasionally intense
cores collapse on themselves. An isolated damaging wind threat
cannot be ruled out, though the vast majority of this afternoon`s
storms should remain sub-severe.

Convection will begin to wane this evening with the loss of
surface heating, and any activity during the overnight hours
should remain isolated in nature. Warm and humid conditions will
prevail overnight with above-normal low temperatures expected.
With high dewpoints and light winds, air quality will become an
issue during the day on Tuesday. The TCEQ has gone ahead and
issued an Ozone Action Day for the Metroplex for Tuesday. Showers
and storms should begin to develop again during the afternoon
hours with brief heavy rain and gusty winds being the main
concern. Convection will be scattered in nature, and any flooding
threat should be limited to small lines or clusters in the
vicinity of outflow mergers.

Little change in the weather pattern is expected through the end
of the work week with primarily diurnally driven convection
expected each day. Activity should remain scattered and POPs will
generally range from 30 to 50 percent. By Saturday, the upper
level ridge to our west will begin to once again expand eastward
into the Southern Plains. Low POPs will be kept across the eastern
half of the forecast area over the weekend before hot and dry
weather returns area-wide early next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 100 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/
18 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns...Convective potential at all North and Central TX TAF
sites. Otherwise...VFR.

For the Metroplex TAF sites...VFR conditions are generally
expected, outside of active convection this afternoon. The morning
mid-level stratus deck has eroded, yielding to abundant sunshine.
Visible satellite imagery combined with surface observations have
revealed a rapidly developing CU/TCU field with more agitated
CU/TCU along the Red River. This deeper convection along the Red
River appears to be aided by sufficient low level convergence
along a remnant outflow boundary that has progressed southward
from convection in OK/KS. Convection that develops should
initially remain north and east of D10 airspace. Through the mid
and late afternoon hours, the boundary layer should become hot and
well mixed and numerous convective outflows should develop. This
should promote the development of additional scattered convection
that should ease south and westward towards the Metroplex TAF
sites closer to 2000 UTC. Convection at or in the vicinity of any
TAF sites will be capable of brief heavy rain resulting in poor
visibilities and strong outflow which will result in variable and
chaotic low level wind fields. Otherwise, light and variable winds
outside of convection will become easterly through the TAF cycle.
Additional convection is expected Tuesday afternoon as low level
east flow continues. Right now, confidence remains too low to
prevail TS in the extended portion of the DFW TAF, but may be
required at later issuances.

For the Waco TAF site...Convective chances also exist across
Central TX, this afternoon, albeit the better chances should be
1-2 hours later compared to the Metroplex TAF sites. Main hazards
to aviation will be lightning, reduced visibility due to heavy
rain and strong convective outflows. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will continue.

24-Bain


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  97  79  97  79 /  20  30  10  30  20
Waco                77  95  76  95  78 /  30  40  20  40  20
Paris               76  95  76  94  75 /  20  30  10  30  20
Denton              75  96  77  95  77 /  20  30  10  30  20
McKinney            76  96  76  96  77 /  20  30  10  30  20
Dallas              80  96  79  97  79 /  20  30  10  30  20
Terrell             76  95  76  94  77 /  20  30  10  30  20
Corsicana           77  95  76  94  76 /  30  40  20  40  20
Temple              76  94  74  94  76 /  30  50  20  40  20
Mineral Wells       75  95  75  96  76 /  20  30  10  30  20

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

24/30



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