Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 011104
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
604 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR
FROM TRL TO JUST EAST OF ACT...MOST LIKELY USHERED IN THIS
MORNING BY A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET. THESE LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
VEERED TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE LOW CIGS EAST OF ALL TAF SITES. WE
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE CLOUD DECK...AS WELL AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE HILL COUNTRY...BUT AT THIS TIME
THE BELIEF IS THAT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

AS FAR AS THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION...THE MOST RECENT MODEL
DATA DOES INDICATE ANOTHER NORTHWARD SURGE OF OUTFLOW/SEABREEZE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE FROM A STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OVERHEAD SHOULD KEEP A LID ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE METROPLEX. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THAT KACT COULD SEE A ROGUE
SHOWER OR STORM...BUT AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
A LITTLE QUIETER MORNING AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...AS THE MAIN
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH OCCASIONAL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD AND MOVING SOUTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TODAY TO ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN SEASONABLY HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...THIS IS A
PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR A SEABREEZE FRONT TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
UPPER TX COAST AND IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. A LITTLE LESS DRY AIR
WILL EXIST IN THE MID LEVELS TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THETA-E LAPSE
RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE MICROBURST. AS A RESULT...WE
ONLY EXPECT SUB-SEVERE GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE. THURSDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER DRY...BREEZY AND HOT DAY AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES MAY
GET LOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL DROP TOWARD THE OZARKS ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE UPPER HIGH OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OFF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A 35-45 KT LLJ WILL
FEED INTO THE ELEVATED 850MB FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
WITH MEAN STEERING CURRENTS PUSHING THE MCS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
RED RIVER OVERNIGHT PER FORWARD-PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SE ACROSS THE OZARKS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

BEST PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCES
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCES JUST NORTH-EAST OF THE DFW
METRO. THE UPPER FLOW DOES DAMPEN SOMEWHAT INTO SUNDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS EAST TX AND ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
COOLER HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-20 FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN DAMPENS QUITE A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING
UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE NET RESULT WILL
BE SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PUSHING THE CENTURY MARK.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  75  94  76  92 /   5   5   5  10  30
WACO, TX              93  75  94  75  93 /  10   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             92  74  91  73  88 /   5   5  10  40  70
DENTON, TX            94  74  93  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          93  75  94  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  40
DALLAS, TX            95  77  94  76  93 /   5   5   5  10  30
TERRELL, TX           93  75  94  75  92 /   5   5   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         92  74  92  74  92 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  73  93  73  92 /  20  10   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  72  94  73  94 /   5   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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