Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 312002
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
302 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions persist across North Texas today...as
we remain on southern side of a weak front. Isolated thunderstorms
will be possible this evening however the best chance for rainfall
should remain along the Red River. As the front drops southward on
Thursday cloud cover is expected to increase keeping temperatures
in the upper 80/lower 90s with rain/thunderstorm chances
increasing through the afternoon.

Once the front moves through the DFW area rain chances decrease
toward the weekend as drier air mixes into the region from the
northeast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Dry air moving into the region from the northeast
will keep most locations dry and mild through the weekend. Best
chances for rain/thunderstorms remains along the south and
southwest counties. Model data suggests that dewpoint
temperatures will not respond to the modest drying from the
northeast so any relief from the humidity looks to be limited and
temporary.  There are very few changes in the day to day
forecast...with only slight variations in max/min temperatures and
rain chances.

Van Speybroeck/Stalley

&&


.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1253 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail through midday Thursday. Scattered-
broken CU fields 4-5 KFT are expected. Convective activity
expected to be weaker and more isolated through sunset due to
some warming mid level temperatures aloft. The 12Z FWD sounding
did indicate a modest subsidence inversion between 700-500mb with
these warming temperatures aloft.

Light n/ne winds around 5 kts will prevail through tonight,
before increasing from the n/ne around 8 kts behind the cold front
late Thursday a.m. Convective chances will increase with a very
tropical airmass interacting with the front and a shortwave
disturbance moving southeast toward the area by midday Thursday.
However, low level convergence at the cold front will not be
impressive with nearly unidirectional and weak surface winds on
either side of the boundary. Convective coverage will be high
enough across the DFW terminals to introduce VCTS after 16Z
Thursday morning. Have left VCTS out at Waco with the cold front
being delayed until Thursday afternoon and convective chances
being lower.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  92  73  89  72 /  10  50  30  10   5
Waco                75  93  73  90  72 /   5  30  20  20  10
Paris               73  88  69  87  65 /  20  40  20  10   5
Denton              72  89  71  88  69 /  20  50  30  10   5
McKinney            74  89  71  88  69 /  10  50  20  10   5
Dallas              78  92  73  90  73 /  10  50  20  10   5
Terrell             74  90  72  90  69 /  10  40  20  10   5
Corsicana           76  92  73  90  71 /   5  30  20  20   5
Temple              73  93  73  91  72 /   5  20  20  30  10
Mineral Wells       72  89  70  87  70 /  20  40  30  20  10

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

05/26



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