Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KFWD 022302
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
602 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH ARE QUICKLY WANING THIS EVENING DUE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID & UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD. WE
HAVE BEEN KEEPING OUR EYE ON AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST
PART OF THE DFW TRACON FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THIS TOO WILL BE ELIMINATED BY THE RIDGE. THE BOUNDARY WAS
GENERATED BY A THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEX NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND HAD BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE DALLAS-FORT
WORTH AREA. THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FEATURE HAS SLOWED AND
WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE WASHING OUT NORTHEAST OF ALL TAF LOCALES.
AS A RESULT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FOR THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY
SO A RETURN OF MVFR IS LIKELY FOR WACO AND THE DALLAS AREA
AIRPORTS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT BY MID
DAY AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ...MAINLY NEAR KACT...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY FOR TS REMAINS TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THE WACO FORECAST.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/
THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA PUT OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AT MIDDAY WHICH MOVED INTO THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE
CWA BEFORE MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL TREND POPS DOWNWARD TO 10 POPS FROM
GAINESVILLE TO CANTON FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD. CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH BY/AROUND SUNSET.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DOMINATE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATER THIS EVENING. WE ARE EXPECTING A LITTLE
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF ON WEDNESDAY...BUT LITTLE ELSE.

COME THIS WEEKEND...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A
BOUNDARY FROM NEW MEXICO TO WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD AS PRECIPITATION
COOLED AIR REINFORCES FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCES THE AREA FARTHER
SOUTH EACH DAY. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE RED RIVER
SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 30 PERCENT
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALL DAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
EVENT...THUS POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. RIGHT NOW
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS SHEAR WILL BE
LOW AND LAPSE RATES NEAR MOISTURE ADIABATIC.

DRY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.    75

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  96  78  96  77 /  10   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              77  97  75  97  75 /  20  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             73  93  74  93  73 /  10   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            76  95  75  95  75 /  10   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  94  75  94  74 /  10   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            79  96  78  96  78 /  10   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           77  96  76  96  76 /  10   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         78  96  75  96  76 /  20  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            75  97  74  97  74 /  20  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     74  96  74  95  73 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.