Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 232042
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
342 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE OFFICIAL FIRST DAY OF FALL IS TURNING OUT TO BE A VERY
PLEASANT DAY. MORNING LOWS STARTED IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES
WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 80S. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT THE OVERALL
IMPACTS TO THE REGION WILL BE MINIMAL AND THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY PERSISTENT AND DRY.

THE REGION IS CURRENTLY DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS
CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND WILL
CONTINUE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ON
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL PINCH OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW AND
RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. IN
THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WEST
TEXAS TOMORROW AND REMAIN STALLED OVER WEST TEXAS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AS THE MIDWEST UPPER LEVEL LOW RETROGRADES INTO THE
PLAINS...THE WEST TEXAS UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
OTHER LOW. THIS MERGER IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
AND THEN THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THE GFS IS
AN OUTLIER ON THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS. IT STRENGTHENS THE WEST
TEXAS LOW SIGNIFICANTLY...NEVER MERGES IT WITH THE PLAINS LOW AND
KEEPS IT OVER THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...FOLLOWED THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM WHICH WERE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT.

DESPITE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE VERY MINIMAL DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE. GENERALLY
EAST WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP THE GULF
OF MEXICO CLOSED AND THUS MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE VERY MINIMAL THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH DRY AND CAPPED MID LEVELS. SOME
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES THIS WEEKEND WITH PWATS INCREASING TO JUST OVER AN
INCH...BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND BEST LARGE SCALE LIFT WEST
OF THE REGION...IT APPEARS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WILL REMAIN DRY.
A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT BUT
CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT POPS AT THIS
TIME.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM MOVES EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY
ZONAL FLOW WILL OCCUR. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE COUNTRY BUT THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT
ON THE LOCATION/TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH.

PERSISTENT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. SOME OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES COULD
APPROACH 90 DEGREES NEXT WEEK.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1237 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/
DRY AIR THROUGH ALL BUT THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL NORTH TEXAS TERMINALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT...MAINLY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  84  63  86  64 /   0   0   0   5   5
WACO, TX              56  84  55  87  62 /   0   0   0   5   5
PARIS, TX             53  80  60  83  60 /   0   0   0   5   5
DENTON, TX            54  84  56  85  59 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          52  83  55  85  58 /   0   0   0   5   5
DALLAS, TX            61  84  64  86  65 /   0   0   0   5   5
TERRELL, TX           56  84  59  86  62 /   0   0   0   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         59  85  59  87  63 /   0   0   0   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            58  85  58  87  61 /   0   0   0   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     56  84  57  85  60 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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