Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
000
FXUS64 KFWD 190013
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
713 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tuesday Night/
Post-frontal weather conditions will take us through the
overnight hours into Tuesday. Wind speeds have gradually decreased
through the afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight.
Lows tonight will bottom out in the mid to upper 30s, with a few
locations out east and along the Red River Valley reaching the
freezing mark. Patchy frost will be possible across portions of
North and Central Texas, so be sure to protect any plants that you
may have outside! Southerly flow will return to the region as we
move into the early morning hours tomorrow, with gusts out of the
southwest around 15-20 mph. Highs will reach into the mid to upper
60s, with a few locations out west hitting the 70 degree mark.
Temperatures through Tuesday night will fall to around seasonal
norms, ranging in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Reeves
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 311 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024/
/Tuesday Night Onward/
An upper low over the Desert Southwest will bring our next chance
of rain as it finally ejects east across the Rockies Tuesday
night, into the Texas Panhandle on Wednesday, and through the
rest of Texas and Southern Plains Wednesday night and Thursday.
Scattered rain showers will develop Wednesday night as the low
approaches the Big Country, with isolated thunderstorms possible
by Thursday as the low center moves east along the Red River. The
best rain chances will likely end up being along and east of I-35
where Gulf moisture will be most plentiful. That being said,
overall moisture will still be limited, with probabilities of
receiving half an inch or more of rain remaining below 30 percent.
Thunderstorms will also likely remain isolated due to limited
instability, but a few storms will be capable of small hail
wherever any pockets of elevated instability exist.
Dry and seasonable weather will return Friday and Saturday as the
upper low and all associated precipitation exit to our east. Focus
will then shift to the West Coast on Sunday where the next upper
trough will be deepening. The trough will be progressive and
dynamic, likely bringing a more widespread round of showers and
storms (compared to the midweek system) as it makes its approach
from the west Sunday night or next Monday. Severe weather
potential remains uncertain at this time, but the time of year and
the current model solutions indicate that there will be at least
a low end chance. We will know more as better resolution guidance
arrives later this week.
30
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/
VFR will prevail across all TAF sites through the period. No
significant aviation weather concerns are expected through Tuesday
afternoon. Few to scattered high clouds will stream across the
region with a few mid-level clouds across Central Texas. Winds
will become southwesterly through the overnight hours into
tomorrow afternoon where gusts up to 10-15 kts will be possible.
Reeves
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 39 68 50 70 57 / 0 0 0 5 50
Waco 38 65 48 67 57 / 0 0 0 0 30
Paris 32 65 44 67 52 / 0 0 0 5 50
Denton 35 68 46 70 54 / 0 0 0 5 50
McKinney 35 67 47 69 54 / 0 0 0 5 50
Dallas 39 68 50 70 57 / 0 0 0 5 50
Terrell 34 65 46 69 54 / 0 0 0 0 50
Corsicana 38 66 49 70 57 / 0 0 0 0 40
Temple 39 66 47 67 56 / 0 0 0 0 30
Mineral Wells 37 71 46 71 54 / 0 0 0 5 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$