Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 302046
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
346 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35W
CORRIDOR AT 3 PM CDT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAD MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS FOUND ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM TYLER TO AUSTIN.
THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE LINE...AND SOMEWHAT
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE COLD FRONT WAS LIKELY LOCATED NEAR A LINE
FROM SHERMAN TO COMANCHE BASED ON TRACKING COLD AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SO LEFT A CHANCE FOR STORMS IN PLACE
ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST OF A SHERMAN TO DFW TO COMANCHE LINE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO POSITIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS APPROACHING THE REGION...SO THERE WILL BE
SOME LIFT OVER THE AREA UNTIL THESE FEATURES MOVE EAST OF NORTH
TEXAS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. BECAUSE
ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED OVER NORTH OR CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

EVEN THOUGH ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR CONCERN ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ENOUGH WATER FELL OVER THE
CWA OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS TO CAUSE FLOODING ON MOST AREA
CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS. COMPLICATING THE PROBLEM IS THE
FACT THAT MOST AREA RESERVOIRS ARE COMPLETELY FULL...SO THEY MUST
DISCHARGE DOWNSTREAM TO KEEP WATER FROM SPILLING OVER THEIR DAMS.
THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED RUNOFF...FLOODED RIVERS...AND LARGE
RELEASES FROM AREA RESERVOIRS WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGH IMPACT
FLOODING AROUND AREA RESERVOIRS AND RIVERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

WE WENT AHEAD WITH A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CITY OF COMBINE
ALONG THE DALLAS AND KAUFMAN COUNTY LINE DUE TO CONCERNS THAT THE
EAST FORK OF THE TRINITY RIVER MAY FLOOD INTO PARTS OF THIS CITY
BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. AS WATER CONTINUES TO
PROCESS FROM FLOODED LAND INTO AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS...ADDITIONAL FLOODING IMPACTS MAY OCCUR POSSIBLY RESULTING
IN THE TEMPORARY EVACUATION OF COMMUNITIES OR PARTS OF COMMUNITIES
NEAR THESE BODIES OF WATER. SPECIFIC DETAILS REGARDING RIVER
FORECASTS AND STAGES CAN BE FOUND ONLINE AT:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS WE WILL BE WORKING WITH LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS TO DETERMINE THE IMPACTS OF FLOODING AROUND
AREA RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS AS FORECASTS ARE ISSUED BY THE RIVER
FORECAST CENTER.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AT THIS TIME MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ENTER A LARGE SCALE TRANSITION TO A DRIER
WEATHER PATTERN. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING
WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A CUT OFF LOW AND REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS
PLACES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UNDER SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WHICH
FAVORS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER WEATHER IN GENERAL. DUE TO THE COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF WATER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...THINK THAT IT IS
VERY UNLIKELY THAT WE REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY FROM TOMORROW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND HEALTHY VEGETATION
WILL PROMOTE A LARGE CONTRIBUTION FOR ADDING WATER VAPOR TO THE
LOWER PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. WHILE
THIS PROCESS ALWAYS PLAYS SOME FACTOR IN AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...THIS PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO BE EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG
THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH ALL OF THE RECORD SETTING WATER WE`VE
RECEIVED OVER THE MONTH OF MAY. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE THAT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST
AT SOME POINT AS AIRMASS OR "POPCORN" THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING
THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY.

THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY UNORGANIZED...AND IT IS
NOT CLEAR WHEN THIS WILL TAKE PLACE...BUT THINK THAT SHORT RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE WILL START ADVERTISING THESE UNORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE.
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER OR HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED FROM
ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY. INSTEAD OF PLACING A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EVERY AFTERNOON THIS WEEK...SIMPLY
LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...AND WILL ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST IF NEEDED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK. OVERALL
HOWEVER...THIS WEEK SHOULD BE DRY...HOPEFULLY ALLOWING PLENTY OF
TIME FOR FLOOD WATERS TO GET PROCESSED BY AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS
REDUCING THE RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

BY NEXT SUNDAY...OR POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOME OF THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER
TROUGH MOVE OVER THE REGION. IF THIS PANS OUT...WILL LIKELY HAVE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE REGION AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 127 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT WILL GENERATE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST OF NORTH TEXAS TAF
SITES...BUT SOME STORMS SHOULD STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT
VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION WHILE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF ALL LOCATIONS THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  81  62  83  65 /  10   5   5  10   5
WACO, TX              65  82  61  84  64 /  20  10   0  10   5
PARIS, TX             60  77  60  80  62 /  10   5   0  10   5
DENTON, TX            60  79  60  82  64 /  10   5   5  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          61  79  59  81  63 /  10   5   5  10   5
DALLAS, TX            62  81  63  84  66 /  10  10   5  10   5
TERRELL, TX           62  79  61  83  64 /  10  10   5  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         64  80  62  83  64 /  20  10   5  10   0
TEMPLE, TX            66  82  61  84  64 /  30  10   0  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     60  80  60  83  64 /  10   5   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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