Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 252034
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
334 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A TUTT, Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough, can be seen on
satellite imagery east of the Big Bend over the northern part of
the Mexican state of Coahuila. Increased moisture has spread north
across Central and parts of North Texas today. With daytime
heating...isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon mainly south of a Goldthwaite to Waxahachie to Emory
line. This activity is expected to dissipate after sunset. Brief
heavy rain, cloud to ground lightning and wind gusts to 40 mph may
accompany some of the storms as they move northward.

An upper level ridge that extended from New Mexico east-
southeastward across Mississippi to northern Florida this
afternoon is expected to shift northwestward into the
Intermountain West during the next several days. With the
westward movement of the upper level ridge and a series of
shortwaves moving southeast along the northeastern periphery of
the ridge will result in a trough digging into the eastward United
States by midweek. In the meantime, a weak surface boundary is
expected to sink southward into North Texas late Monday night into
Tuesday. There will be low chances (10-20 percent POPs) of showers
and thunderstorms area-wide Sunday with better chances Monday
(20-30 percent POPs) through Tuesday (30-40 percent POPs). There
will be some lingering low chances of showers and thunderstorms
southeast of a Lampasas to Emory line Tuesday night and south of a
Goldthwaite to Athens line Wednesday as the surface boundary sinks
farther south. The boundary will lift back to the north overnight
Wednesday night into Thursday. There will be low chances of
showers and thunderstorms north of I-20 Thursday and Thursday
night. With north to northwesterly flow aloft, there will be
continued chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday and
Saturday.

High temperatures will be slightly above normal during the next
couple of days. With southwesterly winds Monday, highs are
expected to reach the mid to upper 90s. With increased cloudiness
and rain chances...Highs will be upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday.
Expect low to mid 90s for the rest of the week.


58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016/
VFR conditions and south winds at 10-15 kts will prevail through
the period. Isolated showers are possible across Central TX this
afternoon and have included VCSH at Waco through 00Z. Am not
expecting thunder to occur at the Waco site this afternoon with
the better thunderstorm potential displaced to the south. At this
time, think MVFR stratus will stay southwest of Waco on Sunday
morning, but will need to monitor and possibly include a tempo
group at Waco if guidance begins trending northward.

-Stalley


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  95  78  97  77 /  10  10  10  30  30
Waco                76  95  74  96  75 /  20  20  20  20  20
Paris               74  95  75  94  74 /  10  10  10  40  40
Denton              76  94  75  96  75 /   5  10  10  30  30
McKinney            76  94  76  95  75 /  10  10  10  30  40
Dallas              79  95  79  96  78 /  10  10  10  30  30
Terrell             76  94  76  95  75 /  10  10  10  30  30
Corsicana           75  94  76  96  76 /  20  10  10  30  30
Temple              74  93  73  95  75 /  20  20  20  20  10
Mineral Wells       74  94  74  96  73 /  10  20  20  20  30

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

77/58



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