214
FXUS64 KFWD 220048
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
748 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
A few convective attempts occurred along the dryline over the past
couple of hours, but due to lacking ascent with only the dryline
present as a lifting mechanism, updrafts have largely been unable
to achieve deep convection despite robust instability. There is
still a small window for our western zones over the next hour or
two for an isolated storm with a hail threat, but these chances
are around 20% or less. Otherwise, remnant shower activity from
midday thunderstorms will steadily progress through parts of
Central and East Texas the rest of this evening, but this
precipitation will also subside with loss of heating. Overall, a
quiet overnight period is forecast in terms of convective chances.
Renewed thunderstorm activity still appears likely as early as
tomorrow morning as a frontal boundary sags southward to the OK/TX
border, with additional deep convection developing along the
dryline in conjunction with stronger mid- level dynamic ascent
later in the day. All severe hazards will be possible tomorrow
with perhaps two or three different rounds/areas of strong severe
convection from late morning through tomorrow night. This is
covered in further detail in the previous discussion below.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/Through Wednesday Night/

Low cloud cover will gradually improve through the rest of the day as
daytime mixing continues across the region. This will allow skies
to clear out, leading to afternoon highs across North and Central
Texas to rise into the upper 80s and low to mid 90s. Something
interesting to note is the gravity wave feature that is currently
moving through portions of North and Central Texas. This appears
to have increased mixing in the lower levels just enough to allow
the cap to erode a bit, as per the latest ACARS soundings. We are
already beginning to see convective attempts late this morning,
with a few elevated showers and storms already firing off. As we
move into the afternoon, increasing instability and a sharpening
dryline across our west will allow for a continued low chance for
isolated severe thunderstorms. Because of this, a mention of
thunderstorms will be maintained through the late evening, with a
quick improvement overnight as any convective activity should wane
rapidly after sunset. That being said, these storms will be
highly conditional. This will mainly hinge on how the cap evolves
through the rest of day and how strong it will through this
afternoon and evening as the dryline pushes into the region.

Overall confidence in the exact coverage, timing, and location of
these storms this afternoon and evening is low. Given the latest
hi-res guidance, initial convective attempts will continue through
around 4 to 6 PM this afternoon. Any storms that do manage to
fully develop will likely have large hail and damaging winds
associated with them. Increasing CIN will return across the region
after sunset as the EML is reestablished and the capping
inversion strengthens once again thanks to cooling within the
nocturnal boundary layer.

Our attention then turns to Wednesday, when our next round of
strong to severe storms will move through the region. This
activity will be much more widespread thanks to better forcing for
ascent associated with a trough that is located across the
Western CONUS. A couple of pieces of energy in the form of
shortwave pulses embedded within the parent trough to our west
will push across portions of North and Central Texas through
Wednesday evening. Increasing coverage may start as early as
Wednesday morning, with this trend continuing as we move into the
afternoon and evening. This activity will generally be associated
with an approaching cold front and the dryline. Any storms that
develop through Wednesday will be capable of producing large hail
and damaging winds, with a lower threat for tornadoes. This
tornado threat will be generally focused along a surface boundary
that will be present somewhere across North or Central Texas. In
addition, renewed flooding concerns may arise through tomorrow
night as well, which will be worth watching. Exact coverage
regarding specific locations will still need to be narrowed down
in future updates as confidence hopefully increases with more hi-
res model runs through tomorrow.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 230 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024/
Update:
The previous long term forecast remains largely unchanged. We`ll
have another potential for severe weather on Thursday, which is
detailed in the previous discussion below. Several additional
chances for showers and storms are expected through early next
week, with perhaps additional opportunities for severe weather
both Friday and Saturday. Stay weather-aware, especially if you
have any outdoor plans over the holiday weekend. Additionally,
with the heat and humidity cranking up this weekend, ensure you
practice heat safety. Wear light-colored clothing, drink hydrating
fluids, and take frequent breaks in an air-conditioned space.

Barnes

Previous Discussion:
/Wednesday Onward/

A cold front will sag south into North Texas on Wednesday as a
shortwave sweeps across the Plains. A few storm clusters may be
ongoing around daybreak Wednesday as the front crosses the Red
River, with activity dissipating mid to late morning as the low
level jet mixes out. The front will likely stall somewhere between
I-20 and the Red River, providing focus for thunderstorm
development Wednesday afternoon as the right entrance region of a
90kt jet approaches from the west. Strong flow aloft (and the
resulting deep layer shear) combined with good instability will
lead to some of these storm becoming severe with large hail and
damaging winds both possible. The presence of the surface front
may also enhance the tornado threat at times, though a persistent
warm layer at 850 to 700mb will hopefully mitigate tornado
development.

Thunderstorms (some severe) will continue into Wednesday evening,
with the best storm chances being along and north of I-20 near
the surface front. PWats near 2 inches will also allow for locally
heavy rain in thunderstorms, and flooding may become an issue
where any training convection may occur. Storms will begin to wind
down around midnight Wednesday night, with activity eventually
dissipating during the overnight hours.

Thunderstorms will redevelop on Thursday as a shortwave trough
passes overhead, with the surface boundary (along with other
possible mesoscale boundaries from Wednesday convection) providing
a focus for development. Shear and instability will be more than
sufficient for severe thunderstorms, with large hail, damaging
winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes possible. Some deterministic
guidance in fact indicates a higher tornado threat for Thursday,
but I would like to see better resolution guidance in the form of
convection allowing models (which will arrive later today through
Wednesday) before ramping up the tornado messaging. The
persistent warm layer could also work against tornado development.
In any case storms will continue into Thursday evening, with the
best rain chances again being along and north of I-20 near the
surface boundary. That being said, any southward shift in the
front itself or in any mesoscale boundary could shift the better
storm chances southward into Central Texas.

Activity will dissipate overnight Thursday night, giving way to a
hot and humid Friday. Dewpoints in the lower 70s and highs in the
lower to middle 90s will yield 100+ degree heat indices Friday
afternoon, with the front having lifted well north of the Red
River by then. The heat will continue through the weekend, with
parts of Central Texas possibly reaching Heat Advisory criteria on
Saturday.

There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms Friday and
Saturday afternoons associated with the dryline. Though storm
coverage may remain isolated, each storm which manages to develop
would likely become severe. A deepening low over the Great Lakes
will send a cold front southward into the region once again on
Monday, providing some relief from the heat along with a slight
chance of storms for Memorial Day. At this time, it looks like the
front will push through the entire region, leading to warm but
drier weather next Tuesday through the midweek period of next
week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Isolated dissipating convection exists across southern portions of
D10 into East Texas as of this writing. Additional convective
attempts have been in progress west of D10 along a surface
dryline, but radar and satellite imagery depict a less impressive
cumulus field by the minute, and this potential is waning with
loss of heating. Will not indicate any TS activity the rest of
this evening with a quiet overnight period expected. MVFR cigs are
expected to return around 8-10z before scattering occurs by mid
morning. Widespread convection is likely to impact all airports
beginning as early as 16-17z tomorrow, but will become more likely
later in the afternoon and evening. In addition to aviation
impacts due to lightning, some strong and severe storms are
expected with threats for hail and damaging winds.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  89  71  87  74 /  30  60  60  40  20
Waco                76  89  73  88  74 /  20  40  50  20  10
Paris               72  85  68  83  70 /  30  80  70  50  40
Denton              73  86  67  86  71 /  30  70  60  40  20
McKinney            74  87  69  85  73 /  30  60  60  40  20
Dallas              76  89  71  87  73 /  30  60  60  40  20
Terrell             74  87  71  86  73 /  30  60  60  30  20
Corsicana           76  90  73  89  75 /  20  40  60  20  10
Temple              75  90  73  88  74 /  10  40  30  20   5
Mineral Wells       73  87  68  87  73 /  30  60  50  40  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$