008
FXUS64 KFWD 030909
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
409 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 217 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024/
/Today and Tonight/

The airmass over most of North Texas remains heavily influenced
by yesterday`s storms. Both the temperature and dewpoint are in
the 60s, while areas that did not receive any storms yesterday
are in the 70s with dewpoints in the 72-76 range. This has
resulted in negligible surface-based instability despite mid-level
instability rebounding remarkably quickly. Due to this, we have
drastically lowered PoPs this morning compared to our previous
forecasts. A few storms are possible over North Texas this
morning, with the coverage of storms around 20-30%.

The warm/humid airmass over the southern portion of our forecast
area will be drawn north this morning along with a blanket of gulf
stratus. The stratus will limit heating for most of the day and
keep highs in the upper 80s for most. This is important because
there is a weak cap sitting over the region and less heating will
limit a parcel`s ability to break the cap without the help of a
focused source of ascent. It`s worth noting that the cap is
stronger west of I-35 and is weaker over East Texas. We could
see scattered warm advection showers/storms develop over the
eastern part of our area this afternoon that continue into the
evening.

Two surface boundaries are expected to be near our area later this
afternoon...an outflow boundary draped over southern Oklahoma and
a dryline to our west. Both boundaries will serve as areas for
thunderstorm development today, with an organized line of storms
expected along the outflow boundary. The CAM guidance has been
consistent with the current cluster of storms over SW Kansas being
the primary source of the outflow boundary moving into southern
Oklahoma later today. Most of the guidance brings the worst part
of this system into Arkansas, but does send the cold pool into
north Texas late in the day. Further west, thunderstorms are
expected to develop where the cold pool intersects the dryline.
For now, that appears most likely between Childress and Wichita
Falls. These storms should move E-SE and may move into Western
North Texas late in the day. Similar to the past few days, the
parameter space remains supportive of damaging wind gusts and
perhaps large hail with the strongest updrafts.

Heavy rain is expected with any storm...and since area soils are
saturated and many water retention ponds/lakes are at capacity, it
is not taking much rain to result in flash flooding.

Another round of overnight thunderstorm activity is possible
across eastern North Texas. Since this will depend on where the
boundaries reside in about 24 hours, attempting to place them is a
futile exercise at this point.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday through Next Weekend/

As advertised over the last several days, the heat will take the
main headline through most of the period. But before we get a few
rain-free days, there will be additional storm chances mainly
Tuesday night and Wednesday. A disturbance in the mid-levels will
send a surface front southward with scattered storms developing
along the boundary. At this time, it appears they will impact our
area between midnight and daybreak Wednesday generally along/east
of I-35 to the northeast. Some of these storms could be strong to
marginally severe, so continue to check back for updates.
Afternoon rain chances will depend on what happens during the
morning hours, but if there`s any leftover boundary nearby we
could see additional development of storms. Still, coverage should
be very limited given the forecast warm temperatures in the mid-
levels. Temperature wise, expect highs in the low to mid 90s
Tuesday and Wednesday with a few locations across the far western
zones peaking the triple digit mark. The high humidity will result
in heat indices in the 99-108 range. Make sure to stay safe in
the heat by taking all the necessary precautions to avoid heat-
related illnesses. Take frequent breaks from the sun and drink
plenty of water!

For the rest of the period, mid-level ridging will dominate the
weather pattern. Daytime highs will be in the 90s each day with
plenty of sunshine and light winds. While some of the extended
models show another system approaching our area by Friday or
Saturday, but the bulk of the guidance keep us dry through at
least half of the weekend.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 217 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

A seemingly narrow band of IFR ceilings was stretched over the D10
terminals that will lead to short-lived low ceilings the next few
hours. IFR-MVFR stratus will engulf all of our TAF terminals early
this morning and remain in place for most of the morning. Ceilings
should slowly lift to VFR after 18-20Z this afternoon.

We have removed VCTS from the TAFs during the pre-dawn period. The
thunderstorm complex to our northwest never materialized and is
no longer expected. We`ll still have to watch for isolated storms
developing near/after sunrise, but the chance of an early day
storm is around 20%. Scattered storms are expected again this
afternoon, with 1 or 2 large storm complexes developing in our
region (either in Oklahoma or North Texas). Our low confidence of
where this will take place has precluded including TS on-station
with the 06Z TAFs.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    87  75  92  76  92 /  30  20   0  20  10
Waco                89  74  94  75  91 /  20  20  10  10  10
Paris               84  72  86  73  87 /  50  40  20  30  20
Denton              87  73  91  74  91 /  30  20   0  20  10
McKinney            85  73  89  75  89 /  40  30   5  20  10
Dallas              88  74  93  76  92 /  40  20   5  20  10
Terrell             86  73  90  74  89 /  40  20   5  20  20
Corsicana           88  75  91  76  91 /  30  20  10  10  20
Temple              90  74  94  75  92 /  20  20  10  10  10
Mineral Wells       89  73  95  75  93 /  20  20   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$