352
FXUS64 KFWD 082030
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
330 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1205 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024/
/Through Sunday/

Seasonably hot and rain-free weather will persist through the
rest of the weekend. An upper ridge will remain anchored overhead
today and during the daytime tomorrow before breaking down
heading into early next week. Despite highs in the mid and upper
90s and heat index values approaching triple-digits, a decent
southerly breeze of 10-20 mph and some higher gusts will help to
offset the otherwise unpleasant June heat. Winds will be lighter
tomorrow though, as a slow-moving frontal boundary sags southward
towards North Texas late in the day. A rather active radar
presentation may exist to our west and north as both this frontal
boundary and a West Texas dryline become convectively active.
However, thunderstorm chances will not return to our forecast area
until later tomorrow evening/night which is addressed in the long
term portion of the forecast.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Night Through Next Weekend/

We`ll be watching two distinct areas of convection Sunday
afternoon, one associated with a West Texas dryline and the other
with a late-season cold front in Oklahoma. The West Texas activity
will separate from the dryline, encouraged to move into the deeper
moisture to the east, but generally weak steering flow will make
this a slow process. The frontal convection to our north should
steadily become outflow-dominant, weakening or diminishing
entirely during the evening hours. Both of these areas will be
largely driven by daytime heating, and with little upper support
and no nocturnal low-level jet, neither should thrive Sunday
night. Low PoPs will address the potential for either/both areas
to enter the region during the overnight hours. The 3-km NAM is
bullish on renewed convection along the frontal/outflow boundary
early Monday morning, but with little to support this, other
available CAM guidance is more appropriately quiet. Weak shear
should focus the convective mode toward rather disorganized multi-
cell clusters that at worst could contain small hail and gusty
winds.

As is typical for this time of year, guidance has poor handle on
the evolution of the surface boundary. Despite the uncertainty in
its position on Monday, it should still remain in the vicinity,
serving as a focus for convective initiation during the afternoon
hours. Sunday`s activity across West Texas will have disrupted the
mid-level flow, and this weakness will be drifting over North and
Central Texas at peak heating Monday afternoon. While this may
encourage additional showers and storms to develop (not associated
with the surface boundary), these convective elements will also
suffer from weak shear. But with adequate instability, the
stronger cells could still result in small hail and gusty winds.

A more potent shortwave will dive into North Texas on Tuesday when
another round of showers and storms may result. Seasonally warm
temperatures and rich boundary layer moisture will maintain the
instability, and the disturbance aloft will introduce an uptick in
shear. But with weak boundary layer flow and the lack of any
surface focus, any convection would likely remain disorganized
Tuesday afternoon. However, the GFS wants to surge an MCS through
the region. The ECMWF delays this potential until Wednesday.

After the rain/cloud-diminished temperatures during the first half
of the upcoming workweek, ridging will nose back into the Lone
Star State, pushing daytime temperatures back above normal late in
the week. Next weekend looks like a repeat of this weekend,
seasonal early summer temperatures with elevated humidity.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1205 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024/
/18z TAFs/

VFR will prevail the rest of today and tonight, with perhaps a
brief intrusion of MVFR stratus at Waco early tomorrow morning.
These cigs are currently forecast to remain south/southeast of
the D10 airports. A southerly breeze of 10-20 kts and some higher
afternoon gusts will eventually wane this evening, with lighter
speeds around 10 kts expected for Sunday.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  93  74  88  72 /   0   0  10  30  20
Waco                73  91  74  89  72 /   0   0   5  20  20
Paris               72  91  70  84  67 /   0  10  10  20  10
Denton              72  93  70  86  70 /   0   5  10  30  20
McKinney            72  92  71  86  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
Dallas              73  94  74  88  72 /   0   0   5  30  20
Terrell             71  91  71  87  69 /   0   0   5  20  20
Corsicana           73  92  74  89  73 /   0   0   5  20  20
Temple              72  93  72  91  72 /   0   0   5  20  10
Mineral Wells       72  95  71  88  71 /   0   5  10  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$