Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
927 FXUS64 KFWD 150550 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1250 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated storms (15-25% chance) are expected this afternoon across much of Central and Northern Texas. - Highs in the 90s and high humidity will result in daily heat indices in the upper 90s and 100s. - Dry weather and near normal temperatures (upper 90s) are increasingly likely heading into this upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Wednesday Night/ Weak upper-level troughing is expected across the Southern Great Plains one more day (today) before ridging builds into the region starting Wednesday. As such, isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible (15-25% chance), almost entirely driven by diurnal heating. While storms may develop anywhere across Northern and Central Texas, the highest chances for rain are north of the I-20 corridor and west of the I-35 corridor. Highs should be in the low 90s, but may be in the upper 80s for locations that see rain, particularly if storms develop during the late morning/early afternoon hours. Tomorrow, highs will again be in the lower 90s, but skies should remain mostly clear with no chance for rain at this time. Lastly, with afternoon dew points remaining in the 70s, peak heat indices will likely range from 95 to 105 degrees both today and Wednesday. Darrah && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Thursday through Monday/ Weak ridging will continue to build into the region from the east, promoting a warming trend with high temperatures increasing into the upper 90s by this upcoming weekend. Though these temperatures are seasonal, a very moist airmass will also be in place, with afternoon dew points in the low and mid 70s. This will result in peak heat indices each day likely ranging from 100-109 degrees. While medium range guidance is generally in agreement of a more summer-like pattern taking hold for the end of the forecast period, there is still some points of uncertainty to address. This is primarily driven by a potential tropical system, that should it develop, would impact portions of the northern Gulf. Depending on the exact size and track of this system, regardless of whether it becomes a named tropical storm or not, our area may see additional cloud cover and precipitation which would act to keep temperatures below average into next week. Right now, this seems somewhat unlikely (30% chance), but is more likely than some medium guidance is suggesting. Darrah && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ Southerly winds at 5-10 kts will strengthen to 10-15 kts at all TAF sites this afternoon and evening (17Z-00Z) before diminishing back below 10 kts tonight. KACT may see a few hours of periodic BKN MVFR cigs between 13Z and 17Z. D10 TAF sites are expected to prevail VFR conditions for the duration of the TAF forecast period. Darrah && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 94 76 96 76 / 5 0 0 0 0 Waco 74 92 73 93 73 / 5 0 0 0 0 Paris 74 93 73 95 73 / 10 0 0 0 0 Denton 75 95 75 96 74 / 5 5 0 0 0 McKinney 75 94 75 96 74 / 10 0 0 0 0 Dallas 76 95 76 97 76 / 5 0 0 0 0 Terrell 74 94 74 96 73 / 5 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 74 96 74 96 74 / 5 0 0 0 0 Temple 73 93 71 94 72 / 5 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 74 94 73 96 71 / 10 5 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$