804
FXUS64 KFWD 281921
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
221 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1153 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/
/This afternoon through Wednesday/

A complex of severe storms that moved through North Texas early
this morning continues to push into Central and East Texas at this
time. A large area of lighter rain and embedded, non-severe
storms will gradually clear from northwest to southeast through
early afternoon, leaving many areas rain-free this afternoon and
evening. However, we will maintain some low PoPs (10%-30%) pretty
much everywhere to account for lingering moisture, stray outflows,
and some afternoon heating. The better storm chances will arrive
across the western counties this evening with storms moving off
the dryline. TTU WRF and HRRR are in decent agreement on storms
timing with an organized line reaching the I-35 corridor around
midnight and exiting into East Texas by sunrise. This solution
seems reasonable and we will based our forecast around it. The
good news is that the atmosphere behind the Wednesday morning
storms should be very worked over, so we will keep storm chances
low on Wednesday for most areas.

High temperatures today will be very tricky since rain-cooled
outflow has knocked temps into the 60s in most locations. There
will be afternoon sun in many spots so we should recover at least
into the 70s to the lower 80s. Lows tonight will fall into the
middle and upper 60s behind the overnight complex of storms.
Wednesday temperatures should be slightly higher than today due to
a bit more daytime sun.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Night through Tuesday/

Unsettled weather will continue across North and Central Texas
through the weekend with multiple chances for thunderstorms and
severe weather. It does appear that a building ridge aloft early
next week will decease storm chances.

Subtle mid-level ridging Wednesday night should limit storm
chances overall. However, lingering moisture and the potential for
random outflow boundaries across the region warrant at least some
low chance PoPs. Thunderstorm chances will increase Thursday
through Friday with subtle shortwave energy moving through nearly
zonal flow aloft. The best storm chances will likely be overnight
Thursday/Friday morning when the steering flow becomes a bit more
northwesterly, allowing a storm complex to move southeast out of
Oklahoma. Storms should push into South Texas Friday evening while
a subtle ridge builds in from the west. The ridge will briefly
become centered over the region Saturday, resulting in decreasing
storm chances and slightly warmer temperatures. Unfortunately, the
"quieter" weather will not last long with a good potential for
West Texas dryline storms to organize and march eastward Saturday
night/Sunday morning due to yet another shortwave moving in on the
heels of the departing ridge. The potential for severe weather
will exist with wind and hail being the most likely hazards. It
is difficult to say how active Sunday afternoon will be but the
most likely scenario is that subsidence will be left in the wake
of the departing storms, limiting afternoon/evening storm
formation.

It does appear the pattern will attempt to change early next week
with a higher amplitude ridge building from the Desert Southwest
to the Central Plains. This pattern will temporarily increase
northwest flow aloft, which often carries afternoon storms from
the Central High Plains into North Texas during the overnight and
early morning hours. The most likely day/time for this to occur
would be overnight Monday into Tuesday morning.

Temperatures Thursday through Sunday will be around or just below
seasonal normals with highs mainly in the 80s. The building ridge
early next week will push temperatures into the 90s for most. A
lack of any noteworthy cold fronts will keep a humid airmass in
place through early next week.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1153 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/
/18Z TAFS/

The complex of severe storms that blow through the TAF sites this
morning will continue to exit to the east and southeast. Very
strong wake low winds remain across the Metroplex TAF sites but
they will likely decrease as the cirrus shield exits to the east.
We anticipate VFR conditions at all TAF sites this afternoon and
most of the evening with a few lingering clouds between 5000 and
8000 ft and scattered to broken high clouds. Another line of
storms is expected to form on the dryline this afternoon across
West Texas. These storms should begin impacting all terminals,
including Waco, between 05Z and 10Z. Storms will exit to the east
after sunrise Wednesday.

Strong and gusty east to southeast winds will decrease in the next
couple of hours. The wind will remain from the east to southeast
this afternoon through Wednesday morning at speeds between 8 and
14 knots along with some higher gusts.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    83  69  85  71  83 / 100  70  40  30  40
Waco                85  68  83  70  83 /  70  60  50  30  50
Paris               79  66  80  67  79 / 100  50  60  20  40
Denton              82  66  83  67  82 / 100  60  40  20  40
McKinney            80  67  83  68  81 / 100  60  40  20  40
Dallas              83  69  85  70  83 / 100  60  40  20  40
Terrell             82  67  83  68  82 / 100  60  50  30  40
Corsicana           84  69  85  71  84 / 100  60  60  30  50
Temple              87  68  84  70  84 /  60  60  50  30  40
Mineral Wells       82  66  84  69  83 / 100  60  40  30  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$