001
FXUS64 KFWD 201038
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
538 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
An exiting shortwave was producing a few elevated showers and
thunderstorms early this morning, generally north of I-20 and east
of I-35. This is the same vicinity as a shallow outflow boundary
from earlier convection that occurred in Oklahoma. The only threat
associated with this activity will be from an isolated lightning
strike. All precipitation will exit the region to the east an
hour or two after sunrise, leaving a mostly sunny, breezy, hot,
and humid start to the work week.

The current forecast is in good shape and the forecast highlights
below are still valid.

79

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight Through Monday Night/

Hot, breezy, and humid weather will continue to start the week
with a mid level ridge in place and strong low level southerly
flow. A 40 knot low level jet will send stratus northward
overnight, reaching portions of Central Texas before sunrise.
These low clouds will not last long once the sun comes up and
boundary layer mixing begins.

After a warm and breezy night with lows mainly in the 70s,
temperatures Monday will steadily warm into the upper 80s to the
mid 90s. Dew points will mix out a bit, but afternoon heat index
values will still exceed the actual temperature by a few degrees.
The only thing that will help with the afternoon heat will be a
very breezy south wind between 10 and 20 mph with occasional
gusts as high as 30 mph. Wind speeds will decrease after sunset,
but it will still be a bit breezy, warm, and humid Monday night
with lows in the lower and middle 70s.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 316 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024/
Update:
The long term forecast, as detailed below, is still valid and no
major changes are needed at this time. We are still thinking the
best storm chances this week will accompany a cold front in the
Wednesday/Thursday time frame, with a potential for severe storms
and heavy rain.

79

Previous Discussion:
/Monday Night Through Next Weekend/

Uncomfortably warm and humid conditions are expected into early this
upcoming week as upper level ridging and warm air advection persist
overtop the region. By Monday night, a longwave trough will have
made residence across the western CONUS. A progressive shortwave
disturbance will move through the mid-level flow across the Central
Plains on Tuesday, effectively shunting the ridge axis further east
into the Deep South. As this initial shortwave ejects to our
northeast, there is potential for isolated showers and storms near
the Red River Tuesday night.

Immediately behind the departing shortwave, a secondary shortwave
disturbance will swing across the Great Plains overnight into
Wednesday and send a cold front southward. This front is progged to
make it into our northwestern counties during the day Wednesday, but
exactly how far the front will progress is still uncertain at this
time. Ensemble and cluster guidance do not have the front making it
too far into our CWA before it loses upper support and stalls. The
NAM has it well farther south, essentially bisecting the region
before stalling. Nonetheless, lift from the front will interact with
moisture and instability, allowing for showers and storms along and
ahead of the front as it moves south. Instability, shear, and mid-
level lapse rates will be enough to promote strong to severe storms
during the afternoon and evening. Another shortwave is expected to
move into the Southern Plains on Thursday, forcing the front to
regress northward as a warm front. The lift from this passing
shortwave will allow for another blossoming of storms, some strong
to severe, over the afternoon and evening hours.

Storm chances will come to an end on Friday as the source of lift
skirts away to the east/northeast. However, on-and-off isolated
storm chances will continue to be possible through the weekend as
additional mid-level impulses move through the overall flow. The
heat will once again ramp up through the weekend with highs in the
90s and dewpoints remaining in the 60 and 70s. Heat indices will
be a bit higher than ambient temperatures in response, so make
sure to stay aware of outdoor conditions and practice heat safety
this upcoming weekend.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

A few showers and storms currently moving east across the
northern portions of D10 airspace will exit into East Texas an
hour or two after sunrise. The limited coverage of this activity
should cause little interruption to air traffic.

Stratus has developed as expected across South Texas and the Hill
Country early this morning. Some brief low end MVFR to IFR
ceilings will reach Waco around 12Z but will scatter out by the
middle of the morning. These ceilings should not make it into the
D10 airspace but a few remnant clouds could survive the journey
northward. Otherwise, we will see few to scattered mid-level
clouds early this morning followed by some passing cirrus later
today and tonight. Stratus intrusion will should follow a similar
timing Tuesday morning.

A breezy south wind will prevail through Tuesday morning generally
between 12 and 17 knots along with some gusts near 30 knots.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    91  74  90  75  88 /   0   0   5  10  40
Waco                88  73  89  75  88 /   0   0   0   5  20
Paris               88  69  87  74  86 /  10   0   0   5  50
Denton              90  72  90  72  86 /   5   0   5  10  40
McKinney            89  72  88  74  86 /  10   0   5  10  40
Dallas              91  74  90  76  90 /   0   0   5   5  30
Terrell             87  71  87  75  87 /   0   0   0   5  30
Corsicana           89  73  90  76  89 /   0   0   0   0  20
Temple              88  72  89  75  88 /   0   0   0   0  20
Mineral Wells       92  72  91  73  87 /   5   0  10  10  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$