901
FXUS65 KGGW 030931
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
331 AM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Widespread chance for showers, thunderstorms and wetting rain
  this afternoon and evening.

- Breezy to windy conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Dry and warm conditions for the end of the week and into the
  weekend.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

An upper low will slide from near Vancouver Island across the
northern Rockies today, before lifting into Saskatchewan on
Tuesday. The surface reflection of this upper low is an Alberta
low that strengthens today. As the stacked system moves east, a
series of fronts rotate through eastern Montana with showers and
a few thunderstorms expected mainly this afternoon and evening.

Pacific jet punches across the northern Rockies behind the upper
low and with tightening surface pressure gradient, strong west
winds are expected from early Tuesday morning into Wednesday.

As the upper low continues to move east, a ridge begins to build
over the western states through the end of the week. This will
bring dry and warm conditions to the region.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE and DEVIATIONS:

With the frontal system, general thunderstorms are a possibility,
but parameters for strong to severe storms is lacking. The only
exception will be the slight potential for strong wind gusts with
the incoming jet. Probability for a wetting rain is moderate,
peaking around 70% overnight.

Confidence is high (80-100%) for winds reaching Lake Wind Criteria
by early Tuesday morning. Ensembles have the strongest winds
around sunrise on Tuesday, which is not as favorable a time for
best mixing of winds, but probability for wind gusts over 40mph
are high (70-100%) over the west for Tuesday. The area for wind
gusts over 50 mph is confined to around the Little Rockies with
only a few hours with high probability for wind gust that could
reach High Wind Criteria.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR/MVFR as a front moves across the region today. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms will accompany the front through the
afternoon and evening. West winds will increase to 15-25kts early
Tuesday morning.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow