718
FXUS63 KGID 312200
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
500 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for spotty showers/storms remain in the forecast for
  late tonight and into the mid-morning to early afternoon hours
  on Saturday. Much of the area may end up being dry on
  Saturday.

- The overall best chances for thunderstorms look to come
  Saturday evening/night and again Sunday evening/night...as
  activity develops off to our west during the afternoon/early
  evening and pushes east thorugh the region. Severe weather
  will be a concern both days...with large hail, damaging winds,
  and heavy rainfall being the primary concerns.

- Spotty storm chances continue into the start of the new work
  week Mon/Tue, with the potential for upper level ridging to
  dry out things for Wed/Thur. Highs Mon-Thur remain in the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 456 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Currently through tonight...

Been a busy day across the area today, as another upper level
shortwave disturbance/MCV slowly made its way east across the
region...increasing in coverage as it shifted east. A surface
frontal boundary has also been gradually sinking south with
time, providing additional focus for thunderstorm development.
While these storms haven`t been severe in terms of hail or
damaging wind gusts, increased lower level instability and shear
led to a handful of funnel clouds, mainly along/east of HWY
281. Of more concern has been the at times torrential rainfall
(like 1 to 2 inch/hour rates), which in spots has dropped
visibility to less than one mile. Flood Advisories remain in
effect for portions of our north central KS counties into parts
of Webster/Nuckolls in NE...but one area that definitely did not
need more rain, Howard County, unfortunately picked up another
1 to 2 inches. An Flood Warning remains in effect for
Howard/Sherman Counties as well.

The mostly cloudy skies and precipitation has kept temperatures
down...but readings have rebounded behind this activity as more
sunshine developed. By the time it`s all said and done, highs
will have reach the mid 60s to mid 70s.

This evening through tonight, once this ongoing wave/activity
shifts east, many of the models keep much of the overnight
hours dry...the exception being the potential for some storms to
slide east out of eastern CO, possibly reaching our far WSW
counties after midnight. Confidence is not high, so chances are
capped at 20 percent. Severe weather is currently not
anticipated. Otherwise...expecting partly to mostly cloudy
skies, and light/variable winds thanks to a weak surface
pattern. Overnight lows are forecast to reach the low-mid 50s
for most.

This weekend...

Looking at Saturday...what had been a mainly dry forecast 24hr
hours ago has a little more uncertainty and more area with
precip chances. During roughly mid-morning through early
afternoon, enough models were showing the potential for some
isolated/scattered showers and storms moving in from the WNW,
clipping mainly the northern half of the forecast area. Because
confidence in it occurring is low, those chances are only 20
percent. The main focus is more during the evening/overnight
hours, when better chances (40-60 percent) spread across the
area. Models remain in pretty good agreement showing
thunderstorms firing over the higher terrain of eastern WY/CO
during the afternoon hours, and how this activity evolves as it
pushes east will be the main concern. Models vary with the
overall coverage of things as it makes its way into our
area...which has MUCAPE values potentially over 1500-2000 j/kg
to tap into as well as sufficient shear. Models show the better
lift/convergence along the LLJ may take the better
focused/organized complex across and to our south, with more
scattered activity further north. Most of the forecast area
remains in the SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk area, with the far SW
corner clipped by the Slight Risk area. Large hail/damaging wind
would be the main threat...but there is getting to be more of
the area that is less tolerable to a whole lot of rain...so
heavy rain/localized flooding is an increasing concern. If those
late morning/midday-ish preciptiation chances don`t end up
panning out, Saturday is not a bad day overall...with forecast
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, and SSE winds around 10-15
MPH.

At least how Sunday starts out is going to be driven by Saturday
night`s activity...and if it has cleared the forecast area by
12Z or not. Forecast has precip chances lingering through the
morning hours, and remain fairly broad with some model
differences remaining...but wouldn`t be surprised to see those
12-18Z chances trimmed back in both magnitude and area. Current
thinking is that once that activity clears, much of the rest of
the day is quiet...as focus again turns to the evening/overnight
hours. Thunderstorms are again expected to develop during the
afternoon/peak-heating hours off to our west...though not as far
west as Saturday, as this activity is focused along a surface
front models have draped through western NE. This activity is
expected to form into an MCS and push ESE through the
area...though the southern extent is a little uncertain, as
models have warmer temps aloft/capping starting to build into
the area...so the main focus here may be our south central NE
counties. Models suggesting both instability and shear are
better for activity to work with...and roughly the central and
NW thirds of the forecast area are included in the SPC Day 3
Slight risk area. Similar to Saturday night...large hail,
damaging winds, and heavy rainfall would be the primary threats.
Sunday looking to be a warmer and more breezy day, with highs
into the mid 80s and gusty southerly winds around 15-25 MPH.

Monday and on...

Spotty, periodic thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast
for the new work week. Models continue to show generally zonal
flow in the upper levels with these periodic disturbances,
especially Mon/Tue...but hard to have a whole lot of confidence
in the timing/location of any of those disturbances. Getting
into mid-week, models showing (to varying degrees) upper level
ridging building across the western CONUS...but we`ll see how
models trend with whether the ridging builds more into the area
or if it stays centered to our west and keeps us more at risk of
NW flow disturbances. Highs Monday-Thursday remain in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Thunderstorms will be a concern for the first couple hours of
this TAF period as another upper level shortwave disturbance
gradually pushes east. Once it passes, have dry conditions
through the rest of the period. Currently have MVFR conditions
at both terminals, which will also be a concern for the first
few hours, but VFR conditions are expected to return later this
afternoon. Unfortunately it looks to be a short-lived break,
with models showing the potential for MVFR/IFR ceilings
developing again later tonight/early Saturday morning. Overall
winds through the period are on the lighter side, one exception
may be in the wake of this wave mid-afternoon, could have a
brief period of stronger winds.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP