266
FXUS63 KGID 302332
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
632 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for a few strong-marginally severe storms remains in
  place this evening/tonight. Wind gusts near 60 MPH, hail up to
  the size of quarters, and heavy rain are the primary threats.
  Any heavy rain over areas that received a few inches this
  morning could result in additional flooding issues.

- Spotty storm chances remain in the forecast through Friday
  night, but confidence in the overall coverage is not high. A
  dry start to the weekend is expected Saturday, before a couple
  of disturbances bring additional storm chances Saturday
  evening/night and again Sunday evening/night.

- Periodic storm chances continue into the start of the new work
  week, but drier conditions look to return for mid-week thanks
  to upper level ridging building to our west.

- Expecting a climb in high temperatures the next couple of
  days, with area-wide mid-80s expected for Sunday. Highs in the
  80s continue on through mid-week...and spots closer to 90 are
  not out of the question on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 416 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Currently through Friday night...

After a bit of a hectic morning for portions of the forecast
area, it`s been an overall pretty quiet afternoon so far.
Looking larger scale aloft, we`re sitting under generally
weaker, westerly flow between broad troughing extending
southward through the Rockies from central Canada and a ridge
axis roughly along the MS River. An embedded smaller scale MCV
developed over the area early this morning, helping drive the
showers/storms we had, and continues to gradually slide east,
where more activity has developed this afternoon. While not
impactful for most of the forecast area, portions of eastern
Sherman into central Howard Counties received anywhere from 2 to
5 inches in a pretty short amount of time, resulting in
flooding of rural roads and a few spots on Highways 92 and 11. A
Flood Warning remains in effect there until noon Friday.

The lull we are currently sitting in is between that departing
MCV and thunderstorms that have developed along a surface cold
front that extends from north central NE southwestward into the
NE/KS/CO border area, as that upper level trough axis continues
shifting east. SPC Meso Analysis page showing a narrow axis of
higher instability (MLCAPE around 2000 j/kg) and steeper lapse
rates draped through the same vicinity...though deeper layer
shear is on the weaker side. Through the rest of today and into
tonight, models vary on just how much activity is sustained and
how far south things sink into the forecast area...so confidence
is not overly high. Recent runs of hi-res models keep the brunt
of activity across the western half of the forecast area. Hard
to argue with the entire area remaining in the SPC Day 1
Marginal Risk area, can`t rule out at least a few
strong/marginally severe storms. Along with wind gusts near
60/hail up to quarter size...the slower movement of any storms
which will have the potential for torrential rain fall keep the
concern for at least isolated flooding around.

Unfortunately there isn`t a lot of improvement in confidence in
the forecast as we get into Friday. Models show the upper
level troughing currently centered to our west hasn`t made a
clean push through, and though on the weaker side, it keeps some
lift around into the evening/overnight hours. Confidence in how
surface boundaries evolve is not high...the cold front
currently to our northwest never gets a solid push through, and
is slow to drift across, but then throw in any potential outflow
boundaries from thunderstorm activity tonight...you end up with
plenty of question marks. It could be somewhat similar to
today, have activity from tonight lingering around into the
morning hours, have a lull, then without stronger capping, could
have isolated/scattered storms redevelop during the
afternoon/peak heating hours...but hard to have chances more
than 20-30 percent in the forecast. There are plenty of
differences between models with just how things play out.
Potential for more clouds to stick around longer into they day,
but even with that, temps should be able to climb into the 70s.
Have precipitation tapering off to an end Friday night-early
Saturday morning, as models show the upper trough axis pushing
through more of the area.

This weekend...

Current thinking is that for most (if not all) of the forecast
area looks to be dry, an overall decent day. Models show the
area under continued generally zonal flow aloft, with a
shortwave disturbance sparking off thunderstorms along the
higher terrain well to our west during the peak-heating of the
afternoon. Have partly cloudy skies in the forecast...with
southerly winds around 10-15 MPH, set up between surface high
pressure to our ESE and low pressure over the higher terrain of
CO. Afternoon high temperatures currently forecast to be pretty
close to average for this time of year, reaching the upper
70s-low 80s. Have a small area of 20 percent chances late
afternoon in far western portions of the area, but suspect those
may end up trending further down...the better chances look to
be more into the evening/overnight hours. That activity that
develops over the higher terrain is expected to make its way
east with time, into what models show is an area of better
instability over eastern CO and western NE/KS. Activity is aided
by an increasing southerly low- level jet and decent deeper
layer shear...main question is how much of our forecast area
ends up impacted by this activity, and just how strong does it
end up being. There will be the potential for some storms to be
strong/severe, and areas roughly along/west of Highway 14 and
into north central KS are included in the SPC Day 3 Marginal
Risk area, with the Slight Risk area barely clipping far western
portions of Dawson/Gosper/Furnas counties. Damaging winds/large
hail/heavy rain would be the primary hazards.

Hard to have a high degree of confidence for Sunday, when it
could potentially be affected with how Saturday night`s
activity pans out. Currently, it`s looking like there will be
the potential for activity to linger into the morning, likely a
lull...then another MCS may push through the area Sunday
evening/night from the west. Not out of the question some of
this could be strong/severe, but definitely need to iron out
some details in the coming days to raise certainty. Outside of
precipitation chances, forecast highs for Sunday reach into the
mid-80s...and current winds are on the breezy side, but any
boundaries put down by the Saturday night activity could throw a
big wrench in that.

Monday on through mid-week...

Periodic thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast for the
start of the week Monday and Tuesday thanks to continued
generally zonal flow in the upper levels...but confidence in the
timing/track of any disturbances that far out is not high.
Models have better agreement as we get into mid-week, with
stronger upper level ridging develop over the Rockies/western
CONUS, bringing northwesterly flow to the Plains. Current
forecast is dry, models not showing much in the way of shortwave
disturbances riding around the edge of the ridge int the
area...but will see how things trend. Current forecast highs are
in the 80s for the most part, do have some spots closer to 90
on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

There is the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms
this evening into the overnight hours tonight. Some model
guidance suggests the potential for isolated storms again around
sunrise, but just went with VCTS this evening/tonight for now
with low confidence regarding any morning convection. VFR CIGS
will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR by midnight or shortly thereafter,
and those will persist up to around the end of the TAF period.
Winds will be light and generally easterly to northeasterly
overnight, then northeasterly at 7-10 kts after daybreak.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Hickford