Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
645 FXUS63 KGID 311123 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 623 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily chances for thunderstorms continue through the weekend into next week. - Details remain uncertain, but the best chance for severe weather appears to be Sunday evening into Sunday night. - Other than today, near-normal temperatures in the 80s are expected through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Weakly-sheared and slow-moving thunderstorms persist into the early morning. This has resulted in a few areas of locally heavy rain, but nothing like the event that impacted portions of Sherman and Howard Counties yesterday. At least a few thunderstorms are likely to persist through most of the day today as a broad upper shortwave moves across the northern Plains. Overall predictability is low with this activity. Storms cannot be ruled out at any point today/tonight, but there will be plenty of dry time in-between showers/storms. Shear will remain fairly low, and CAPE will remain somewhat limited due to continued cloud cover, therefore the overall severe threat is low. Locally heavy rain will be the primary threat with any storms that develop, though a few isolated strong storms may produce small hail and gusty winds. The current expectation is for shower/thunderstorm activity to move out of the area by daybreak Saturday morning. That said, the 00Z and 06Z runs of the HRRR show a cluster of storms redeveloping and tracking over the northern half of the area Saturday morning. Unfortunately there is not much support for this solution amongst the other CAMs. By late Saturday afternoon and evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop to our west, with one or more clusters eventually moving through portions of central Nebraska and Kansas Saturday evening into the overnight. These storms will have more shear (35-50kt 0-6km) and instability (1500-3000J/kg MLCAPE) to work with than today`s storms, so severe hail/wind is possible. As such, SPC has a Marginal Risk across the entirety of our forecast area. For Sunday, strong southerly flow is expected ahead a better defined upper shortwave. The daytime will likely end up being dry/capped for most of the area, but the increasingly warm/moist air will set the stage for one or more clusters of storms to arrive from the northwest Sunday evening into the overnight. As of now, this appears to be our best chance for severe weather over the next 7 days. Low-end rain/thunderstorm chances persist through Monday, with better chances returning with another upper shortwave and frontal system Tuesday into Tuesday night. Today through Tuesday night, global ensembles show a medium to high chance (40-80%) to see at least an additional 1 inch of rain across the ENTIRE area, and the northeastern half of the area has a 20-40% chance to see 2 or more inches of additional rain. Ensembles favor a drying pattern late next week into the following weekend, but confidence in this occurring is still not overly high. We may trend drier overall, but it doesn`t look like rain/storms will completely "shut off" by an means. Many deterministic runs show continued systems into the middle of June. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 IFR ceilings continue before gradually improving from mid morning and into the early afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will also potentially develop in the GRI/EAR vicinities later this morning through the afternoon. There is increasing confidence (40-60%) in another round of IFR ceilings tonight into Saturday morning. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Mangels