Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
555 FXUS63 KGID 310541 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1241 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for a few strong-marginally severe storms remains in place this evening/tonight. Wind gusts near 60 MPH, hail up to the size of quarters, and heavy rain are the primary threats. Any heavy rain over areas that received a few inches this morning could result in additional flooding issues. - Spotty storm chances remain in the forecast through Friday night, but confidence in the overall coverage is not high. A dry start to the weekend is expected Saturday, before a couple of disturbances bring additional storm chances Saturday evening/night and again Sunday evening/night. - Periodic storm chances continue into the start of the new work week, but drier conditions look to return for mid-week thanks to upper level ridging building to our west. - Expecting a climb in high temperatures the next couple of days, with area-wide mid-80s expected for Sunday. Highs in the 80s continue on through mid-week...and spots closer to 90 are not out of the question on Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 416 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Currently through Friday night... After a bit of a hectic morning for portions of the forecast area, it`s been an overall pretty quiet afternoon so far. Looking larger scale aloft, we`re sitting under generally weaker, westerly flow between broad troughing extending southward through the Rockies from central Canada and a ridge axis roughly along the MS River. An embedded smaller scale MCV developed over the area early this morning, helping drive the showers/storms we had, and continues to gradually slide east, where more activity has developed this afternoon. While not impactful for most of the forecast area, portions of eastern Sherman into central Howard Counties received anywhere from 2 to 5 inches in a pretty short amount of time, resulting in flooding of rural roads and a few spots on Highways 92 and 11. A Flood Warning remains in effect there until noon Friday. The lull we are currently sitting in is between that departing MCV and thunderstorms that have developed along a surface cold front that extends from north central NE southwestward into the NE/KS/CO border area, as that upper level trough axis continues shifting east. SPC Meso Analysis page showing a narrow axis of higher instability (MLCAPE around 2000 j/kg) and steeper lapse rates draped through the same vicinity...though deeper layer shear is on the weaker side. Through the rest of today and into tonight, models vary on just how much activity is sustained and how far south things sink into the forecast area...so confidence is not overly high. Recent runs of hi-res models keep the brunt of activity across the western half of the forecast area. Hard to argue with the entire area remaining in the SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk area, can`t rule out at least a few strong/marginally severe storms. Along with wind gusts near 60/hail up to quarter size...the slower movement of any storms which will have the potential for torrential rain fall keep the concern for at least isolated flooding around. Unfortunately there isn`t a lot of improvement in confidence in the forecast as we get into Friday. Models show the upper level troughing currently centered to our west hasn`t made a clean push through, and though on the weaker side, it keeps some lift around into the evening/overnight hours. Confidence in how surface boundaries evolve is not high...the cold front currently to our northwest never gets a solid push through, and is slow to drift across, but then throw in any potential outflow boundaries from thunderstorm activity tonight...you end up with plenty of question marks. It could be somewhat similar to today, have activity from tonight lingering around into the morning hours, have a lull, then without stronger capping, could have isolated/scattered storms redevelop during the afternoon/peak heating hours...but hard to have chances more than 20-30 percent in the forecast. There are plenty of differences between models with just how things play out. Potential for more clouds to stick around longer into they day, but even with that, temps should be able to climb into the 70s. Have precipitation tapering off to an end Friday night-early Saturday morning, as models show the upper trough axis pushing through more of the area. This weekend... Current thinking is that for most (if not all) of the forecast area looks to be dry, an overall decent day. Models show the area under continued generally zonal flow aloft, with a shortwave disturbance sparking off thunderstorms along the higher terrain well to our west during the peak-heating of the afternoon. Have partly cloudy skies in the forecast...with southerly winds around 10-15 MPH, set up between surface high pressure to our ESE and low pressure over the higher terrain of CO. Afternoon high temperatures currently forecast to be pretty close to average for this time of year, reaching the upper 70s-low 80s. Have a small area of 20 percent chances late afternoon in far western portions of the area, but suspect those may end up trending further down...the better chances look to be more into the evening/overnight hours. That activity that develops over the higher terrain is expected to make its way east with time, into what models show is an area of better instability over eastern CO and western NE/KS. Activity is aided by an increasing southerly low- level jet and decent deeper layer shear...main question is how much of our forecast area ends up impacted by this activity, and just how strong does it end up being. There will be the potential for some storms to be strong/severe, and areas roughly along/west of Highway 14 and into north central KS are included in the SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk area, with the Slight Risk area barely clipping far western portions of Dawson/Gosper/Furnas counties. Damaging winds/large hail/heavy rain would be the primary hazards. Hard to have a high degree of confidence for Sunday, when it could potentially be affected with how Saturday night`s activity pans out. Currently, it`s looking like there will be the potential for activity to linger into the morning, likely a lull...then another MCS may push through the area Sunday evening/night from the west. Not out of the question some of this could be strong/severe, but definitely need to iron out some details in the coming days to raise certainty. Outside of precipitation chances, forecast highs for Sunday reach into the mid-80s...and current winds are on the breezy side, but any boundaries put down by the Saturday night activity could throw a big wrench in that. Monday on through mid-week... Periodic thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast for the start of the week Monday and Tuesday thanks to continued generally zonal flow in the upper levels...but confidence in the timing/track of any disturbances that far out is not high. Models have better agreement as we get into mid-week, with stronger upper level ridging develop over the Rockies/western CONUS, bringing northwesterly flow to the Plains. Current forecast is dry, models not showing much in the way of shortwave disturbances riding around the edge of the ridge int the area...but will see how things trend. Current forecast highs are in the 80s for the most part, do have some spots closer to 90 on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 IFR conditions are likely to develop tonight at GRI/EAR (50-70% probability), and LIFR ceilings are possible (20-30% probability). Conditions gradually improve through the day on Friday, but BKN/OVC skies will likely continue into the afternoon with at least borderline MVFR ceilings. Spotty thunderstorms also persist through the early morning hours, with additional redevelopment possible on Friday afternoon, especially at GRI. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...Mangels