459
FXUS63 KGID 272341
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
641 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry and seasonably warm through Wednesday.

- Wednesday evening/night, showers and thunderstorms move
  eastward off of the High Plains into the area.

- A front moving across the area Thursday-Friday will bring the
  best chances for showers/storms, as well as perhaps severe
  weather.

- Off and on showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday
  evening through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Tonight through Wednesday...
High pressure over the central Plains and mostly clear skies
will allow temperatures to be seasonably warm with highs in the
upper 70s and low 80s through Wednesday. Lows will be in the 40s
and 50s. That being said, there will be a low chance (~20%) of
isolated off and on showers and thunderstorms south and west of
the tri- cities Tuesday into Wednesday morning along a
shortwave embedded in the flow.

Wednesday evening through Friday...
After a pretty dry first half of the week, a cold front will
move eastward into the central Plains, pushing the high pressure
out of the region and bringing our next main chances of showers
and thunderstorms...although Wednesday evening they may struggle
a bit to develop with the upper level ridge still over the
region. Once this moves out Thursday though, precipitation
chances will increase quickly, with the absolute best chances
looking to be Thursday afternoon into Friday morning (65-85%) as
the trough axis moves directly across the forecast area.
Instability will also increase across the area, especially
Thursday afternoon and evening. It is still a little too early
to really dig down into details with confidence, but this may be
our next chance at severe thunderstorms. There are also some
indications within some ensemble model members for excessive
rainfall and associated localized flooding over mainly eastern
and southern portions of the forecast area Thursday/Thursday
night. So far, these are the outliers as opposed to the
consensus (most model guidance keeps the heavier rainfall
amounts further south over Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas), but it
will be something to watch over the next few days. As usual, we
will have a better idea regarding both concerns with subsequent
forecasts.

Friday evening through next weekend...
After the cold front departs the area, quasi-zonal flow will
establish over the region. With shortwave disturbances embedded
in the overall pattern, on and off showers and thunderstorms
will be possible Friday evening through the weekend. High
temperatures will be in the low to mid-70s immediately behind
the front Thursday/Friday AM, but are expected to recover into
the 70s and 80s over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

High confidence (95%+) in VFR conditions through the entire TAF
period. Only a few mid to high clouds are expected at times
tonight into Tuesday. Any showers/storms that develop Tuesday
morning should stay well south of GRI/EAR.

Winds decrease this evening, becoming light variable through
tonight. Lighter north winds are expected on Tuesday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Mangels