401
FXUS63 KGID 072354
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
654 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will move into the area during
  the late afternoon hours and continue into the overnight
  hours. Large hail, damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall are
  the main concerns, though an isolated tornado can`t be ruled
  out.

- Cooler weather this weekend and into next week with highs in
  the 70s.

- Scattered precipitation chances Saturday into next week,
  mainly during the overnight hours.

- Warmer weather returns towards the middle-end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024


This Evening and Overnight...

A shortwave trough over the Rockies will emerge over the plains
during the late afternoon hours. A front associated with this
shortwave has helped to provide enough lift for thunderstorm
development over north central Nebraska. SBCAPE values of 2000+ J/Kg
combined with 0-6km shear of 50kts will allow for severe
thunderstorms. Initial storm development will see discrete
supercells with the potential to produce large hail, damaging wind
gusts and an isolated tornado can`t be ruled given 0-3km SRH values
of 200-250 M^2/S^2. Supercells are expected to merge into one or
more clusters/lines over time. The threat for damaging wind gusts
will increase as storms form into a line, with some gusts of 70+ mph
possible. The biggest area of uncertainty for this evening/overnight
is how widespread severe thunderstorms will be. HREF ensemble members
indicate the potential for severe thunderstorms across most of
the forecast area, with the highest uncertainty for areas
southwest of the Tri-Cities. Northeastern portions of the area
have had the highest model consensus for severe thunderstorms to
move through the area, which lines up with the SPC enhanced
risk. Severe thunderstorms are expected to exit southeastern
portions of the area around midnight, with scattered
thunderstorm chances continuing overnight.

Heavy rainfall is also a concern with thunderstorms, with PWAT
values over 150% of normal. Areas that receive multiple rounds
of thunderstorms this evening/overnight could see rainfall of
1-2 inches. Areas along and east of HWY 281 have the best
chances to see multiple rounds of thunderstorms.

This weekend...

Northwest flow will continue aloft this weekend, with cooler
temperatures expected behind the frontal passage. Highs will be in
the 70s to low 80s on Saturday. Scattered showers/storms are
possible during the day on Saturday (15-25%), mainly for areas along
and north of I-80. Showers and thunderstorms moving off the western
high Plains will move into the area Saturday night. Southern
portions of the area will have the highest chances (35-50%) to see
rain from these decaying storms. Severe weather is not expected on
Saturday as the best instability and shear will be south of the
area. Sunday looks to remain dry throughout the day, with highs in
the 70s. A few decaying showers/storms may enter western portions of
the area Sunday night.

Next week...

Weak ridging will build ahead of an approaching shortwave trough
Monday evening, bringing additional shower/thunderstorm chances to
the area Monday night. Northwest flow will build over the area once
again, with scattered, low probability chances (15-20%) for
precipitation during the overnight hours each day. Lows to start
next week will be in the 70s. As we get towards the end of next
week, both the GFS and the ECMWF ensembles show riding building over
the area, with highs climbing into the 80s and 90s. Overall, drier
weather is expected next week. &&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday evening, with
the best chances northeast of the TAF sites, though KGRI has
higher chances to see a thunderstorm than KEAR. Have -TSRA at
KGRI and VCTS for KEAR to indicate the different thunderstorm
chances.

Southerly winds will continue through the afternoon hours,
breezy at times with gusts around 20Kts. Winds will decrease and
become more easterly during the evening hours and eventually
becoming light and northerly overnight as a cold front moves
through the area. Winds may become erratic this evening if a
thunderstorm moves through the area (Higher chances at KGRI than
KEAR). Northerly winds become breezy after sunrise on Saturday.
Some MVFR ceilings are possible Saturday morning, though
confidence is not high enough to introduce it at this time. Have
SCT020 to indicate this potential.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Strong to severe thunderstorms are progressing east, with a
supercell likely to impact KGRI after 01z. Storms look to
remain north of KEAR unless more storms build to the west. As
the thunderstorm moves into KGRI, gusts to 50Kts are possible.
Thunderstorms will exit the TAF sites after 03z with winds
becoming light and northerly overnight. Ceilings will begin to
lower after 06z falling to MVFR. Ceilings could lower to IFR but
confidence is not high enough at this time to include it.
Ceilings will begin to raise during the late morning hours with
winds becoming breezy and northeasterly.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis