Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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961 FXUS63 KGID 241126 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 626 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool, dry and brisk conditions today. - Next chance for thunderstorms - including the potential for severe weather - comes Saturday evening and overnight. - Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats, though a few tornadoes and isolated flooding are also possible. Those with Saturday eve/night activities, particularly campers, will want to stay up to date with the latest forecasts. - Rain chances continue into Sunday, but dry and pleasant weather expected for Memorial Day Monday. Off and on rain chances return Tuesday night through the end of the week amidst generally seasonable temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 510 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Busy late evening and overnight, so not a ton of time to do a deep dive into the forecast. Fortunately, the very short term of today and tonight is quiet and dry, albeit a bit cool and breezy - esp. this morning. Saturday looks to be quite similar to what Thursday was like with strong southerly winds bringing warmer air back into the area, and eventually some higher low level moisture as well. The mid to upper level pattern is not particularly interesting, though models are in good general agreement that a low amplitude shortwave will eject out of the Southwest and onto the C. Plains between 18Z Sat and 12Z Sun. The timing of this wave appears to be slightly slower than 24-48 hrs ago, which contributes to a slightly slower moisture return. Similar to yesterday, appears that boundary layer moisture deep enough to compete with capping from an elevated mixed layer won`t occur until later in the day, so have fairly high confidence that most, if not all, of the daylight hrs will be dry. A potential caveat to this would be over portions of north central KS near a sfc triple point of a W to E warm front and a N to S dry line. However, even for these areas most model guidance has trended later to mainly around or after 00Z/7PM. If something can develop, would probably be isolated in nature given modest moisture and overall forcing, but could be supercellular with very large hail given moderate to strong deep layer shear and very steep mid level lapse rates. The more likely scenario appears to be trending towards one where convective coverage and organization increases after dark in response to increasing low level jet, arrival of deeper moisture, and height falls/weakening cap with approach of mid level shortwave. WHERE exactly this occurs is probably the most uncertain aspect at this time as model guidance varies anywhere from central Neb. (NAM) to more focused S of Hwy 6 and E of Hwy 281 (GFS/EC). There will need to be a lot of work done in the moisture return department, so tend to favor the more SErly solutions which could potentially spare the Tri-Cities N and W from the most severe activity. However, with there still being some uncertainty and a mostly nighttime event over a long holiday weekend, want to emphasize the importance that campers stay up to date with latest forecasts and have at least a couple methods to receive warnings as they can be especially vulnerable to severe weather. The mainly overnight scenario would tend to favor initial threat of hail, transitioning to mainly high wind and heavy rain/flash flooding late. Mid to upper flow transitions to more NWrly for the rest of the Memorial Day Weekend, so this could continue some shower and thunderstorm chances into Sunday. Instability should be fairly limited owing to cooler/drier air, so severe weather appears unlikely on Sunday. Memorial Day Monday looks more solidly dry at this time with seasonable high temps in the 70s to near 80F. Dry and seasonable weather persists into Tuesday before off and on rain chances return to the forecast Tuesday night and continue through most of the rest of the work week. Too far out for much in the way of details, but should eventually see a return of greater moisture/instability by around Thu or Fri. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 621 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 SFC high pressure over over NE CO will keep westerly winds over the area today. With the SFC low over IA keeping a somewhat tight gradient over the TAF sites, expect winds to gust into the mid 20s today. The SFC high tracks across NE this afternoon and this evening the center moves over the TAF sites for a few hours so went VRB winds for a few hours before southerly winds return on the back side of the SFC high as it moves into IA. VFR is expected through the period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Thies AVIATION...Beda