


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
178 FXUS63 KGID 090913 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 413 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a marginal risk of severe storms mainly this evening into tonight with the main threats being large hail and damaging winds. - There is a slight risk of severe storms mainly Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. The main threats with these storms will be large hail and damaging winds. - High temperatures on Thursday will warm up into the upper 80s to around 100 degrees. Heat index values will be in the low 90s to near 104 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 410 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Today and tonight... A big upper ridge is centered over Arizona with Nebraska and Kansas under the eastern edge of it. Temperatures across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Winds will mostly be out of the south today with temperatures warming up into the upper 80s to upper 90s. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be in the mid 60s to low 70s. Upper level shortwaves will move over/near the area today into tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across the area as a result of lift from the shortwaves. There is some uncertainty as to when these storms will impact the area. Generally think that storms will move into western portions of the area this evening and move eastward across the area into the overnight hours. Very high CAPE and mid-level lapse rates as well as fairly high wind shear will be across the area today so any storm that develops and moves into the area will have the potential to become severe. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. Thursday and Thursday night... The previously mentioned upper ridge will be somewhat flattened on Thursday by an upper trough out of Canada moving over the northern Rocky Mountains. Upper level shortwaves are expected to move near/over the area on Thursday. This will allow for more showers and storms to develop. High CAPE and lapse rates will again be present on Thursday but wind shear will be lacking with values only up to around 30 knots according to the NAM12. Severe storms will again be possible with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the main threats. The main time frame for severe weather will be from around mid afternoon into the evening hours. High temperatures on Thursday will warm up into the upper 80s to around 100 degrees. Heat index values are expected to range from the low 90s to near 104 degrees. Low temperatures Thursday night will range from the low 60s to low 70s. Friday through Saturday night... An upper level trough will be over south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas on Friday. A cold front associated with this trough will move into the area resulting in high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 90s on Friday. Showers and storms will again be possible (up to around a 50% chance) and some of these storms especially along and just behind the front may become strong to marginally severe. The severe threat will be afternoon into the early evening hours. Low temperatures Friday night will drop into the mid 50s to mid 60s with a surface high pressure across the area. The surface high will still impact the region on Saturday with high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Low temperatures Saturday night will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Sunday through Tuesday night... Temperatures will begin warming up on Sunday with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s with southerly winds. Low temperatures Sunday night will be in the low to upper 60s. Temperatures on Monday may warm a degree or two higher than the previous day. Low temperatures Monday night will be in the low 60s to low 70s. An upper trough will begin moving over the northern and central Plains on Tuesday and may result in showers and storms across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night (15% to near 40% chance). High temperatures on Tuesday are expected to be in the lower 80s to lower 90s with lows Tuesday night in the upper 50s to mid/upper 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are generally expected for the next 24 hours although there is a chance of storms, possibly this morning but an even higher chance from 00z to 06z Thursday which may include reduced visibilities. Southeast winds will become more southerly by 12z and will generally remain out of the south through at least 00z Thursday. Wind shear is possible between 01z and 06z Thursday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schuldt AVIATION...Schuldt