198
FXUS63 KGID 270544
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1244 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop late this
  afternoon and move across the area from northwest to southeast
  this evening. There may be some gusty winds and small hail
  with these storms, but organized severe weather is not
  expected.

- Dry and pleasant weather is expected Memorial Day with highs
  in the 70s and low 80s. Monday will be breezy, with gusts
  north of I-80 up to 30 mph in the afternoon.


- Most areas remain dry Tuesday and during the day Wednesday,
  with showers and thunderstorms returning to much of the area
  Wednesday evening, persisting through the end of the work week
  and slight chances continuing into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

This evening:
A shortwave moving across the central Plains will allow showers
and storms to develop later this afternoon and this evening.
CAPE and shear values are not super impressive, but steep mid-
level lapse rates (8 degrees C/km) and DCAPE values of near 1000
J/kg indicate the potential for an isolated marginally severe
hail/wind threat...and the HRRR has been consistently trying to
latch on to convective gusts of around 50 mph for the past few
hourly runs. Still, while an isolated storm may produce
marginally severe hail/wind as they move into the area, this is
expected to be isolated and storms should weaken as they move
southeast, especially after sunset.

Monday and Tuesday:
Monday, high pressure will move over the region, leaving the
area mostly dry with highs in the 70s and low 80s both days.
Monday will be breezy, especially north of I-80, where gusts up
to 30 mph are expected in the afternoon.

Tuesday night and Wednesday:

A messy shortwave / area of low pressure will develop across SW
KS, OK and northern TX Tuesday evening, and a few showers and
storms may make it as far north as our southwestern counties
Tuesday night and Wednesday AM. Otherwise, an upper ridge will
help keep the area dry and warm the rest of Wednesday...highs
will be in the 70s and low 80s once again.

Wednesday night through Friday:
The pattern is expected to change to a wetter one as the ridge
is pushed out of the area and a series of troughs/shortwaves
march across the region. Starting Wednesday evening, there will
be at least a 30 percent chance of showers and/or thunderstorms
through Friday evening. Currently, the best chances look to be
Thursday evening/night as one of the stronger fronts move
through, but model guidance does diverge some on the timing of
this and how widespread precipitation will be, so that can be
expected to change. While not in an official outlook, this
stronger frontal passage may also be our next chance for severe
weather, but details are too murky to be certain...just that it
will be something to watch out for.

Next weekend:
Going into next weekend, there will be a slight chance of
showers and storms but model guidance diverges far too much to
say beyond that. Obviously, the forecast for next weekend will
resolve more throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR through the period. Lgt W-NW winds early this morning will
bec brzy by midday, and esp this aftn with sustained winds
12-17kt, and gusts 25-30kt. Quiet conditions and decreasing
winds are forecast for Monday evening. Confidence: High.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Thies