214
FXUS63 KGID 090511
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1211 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Most severe thunderstorms should remain south of our forecast
  area this evening/tonight, but can not rule out a few severe
  storms as far north as our north central Kansas counties (8PM
  to 1AM).

- Mild dry weather for Sunday into Monday with highs in the
  upper 70s to lower 80s.

- Several mainly low end chances for showers/thunderstorms
  Monday night/Tuesday and again Thursday night/Saturday

- Warmer temperatures return on Wednesday and Thursday with
  highs back into the upper 80s and 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

This evening/tonight severe weather threat...
After analyzing numerous forecast models it appears rather
evident that most of any strong to severe storms will primarily
track off to our south late this evening/tonight. These
thunderstorms are just now (4PM) beginning to form across
eastern Colorado and are expected to track east southeast
through the evening hours. We have very little instability
across our Nebraska zones and most of the instability today is
located across southern and central Kansas, with some modest
elevated instability as far north as northern Kansas. At this
point can not rule out a few strong to severe thunderstorms
late this evening across north central Kansas, but am really
expecting most if not all of the severe storms to remain
southwest and south of our forecast area. Although we could
still see at least some showers and thunderstorms further north
across our area.

Sunday and Monday...
We`ll see a bit of an upper level ridge move across the plains
resulting in what should be a dry few days.

Monday Night - Tuesday...
Next upper trough moves through the plains, but with mixed
model output regarding rain chances. At this point it looks like
a low confidence more isolated chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

Wednesday and Thursday...
Upper pattern is rather zonal and at this point dry, but with
warming conditions. NBM blend has us above normal with
widespread 90 plus temperatures by Thursday.

Friday - Saturday...
An upper trough begins to take shape across the western United
States bringing showers and thunderstorms back into the picture.
However, many questions remain regarding timing and strength of
this next trough.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Northeast
winds at around 5 kts will persist through most of Sunday
morning, when winds turn to the east at 6-9 kts. Winds will be
light and generally easterly toward the end of the TAF period.
A couple layers of SCT to BKN cloud cover are expected at 8k ft
and 15k-20k ft through mid- to late Sunday morning, after which
skies will be clear.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Hickford