831
FXUS63 KGID 062344
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
644 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The whole forecast area has a slight risk of severe
  thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday night.

- The main concerns with any severe storms that develop on
  Friday will be large hail and damaging winds.

- High temperatures will be in the lower 70s to mid 90s. Low
  temperatures will be in the lower 50s to upper 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Today and tonight...

An upper trough extends from Canada to the Midwest and northern and
central Plains. Mostly northerly winds are across south central and
central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Sunny skies are across
the area with temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Southerly winds
return to the area tonight with low temperatures mostly in the 50s.

Friday and Friday night...

The previously mentioned upper trough will move further east on
Friday with another upper trough beginning to move over the northern
Plains. A shortwave trough is expected to move over south central
and central Nebraska and north central Kansas on Friday which will
increase upper lift. High temperatures on Friday will warm up into
the low 80s to mid 90s as winds increase out of the south. Dewpoint
temperatures will mostly be in the 60s Friday afternoon. Zero to six
km bulk shear will be around 50 knots and surface CAPE of over 2,000
J/kg is expected across most of the area on Friday. Mid-level lapse
rates will be around 7 degrees C/km according to the NAM12. These
conditions will lead to a potential of severe thunderstorms for
Friday afternoon into Friday night. All of the forecast area is in a
slight risk per the Storm Prediction Center`s day 2 outlook. Large
hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. Mostly northerly
winds will be across the area Friday night behind the convection.
Low temperatures Friday night are expected to range from the mid 50s
to mid 60s.

Saturday through Sunday night...

The northerly winds will continue into Saturday as a surface high
moves closer. Temperatures on Saturday will be cooler than the
previous day with highs ranging from the low 70s to mid 80s. Cooler
temperatures are expected Saturday night with lows in the lower 50s
to lower 60s. Temperatures on Sunday will be similar to the previous
day as winds become more easterly. The GFS is showing an upper low
centered over the dakotas Sunday night with a cold front moving into
south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. The
ECMWF is not showing a cold front but keeps winds out of the
southeast. Both models are indicating some precipitation but the GFS
has the most widespread rain due to it showing a front. Kept chances
of rain low (15% to around 20%) due to the uncertainty. Low
temperatures Sunday night will be in the 50s.

Monday through Wednesday night...

High temperatures on Monday are expected to be similar to those on
Sunday. Some of the models are showing rain for Monday, but only
have slight (15% to near 20%) chances in the forecast due to model
inconsistencies. Low temperatures Monday night will be in the mid to
upper 50s. Temperatures will warm up a little on Tuesday with highs
ranging from the upper 70s to the mid 80s. Slight chances (15% to
around 25%) of precipitation will be present on Tuesday as an upper
trough begins to move east of the area. Low temperatures Tuesday
night will warm up slightly from the previous night. Temperatures in
the mid 80s to lower 90s are expected on Wednesday as an upper ridge
builds over the southern Plains. Low temperatures Wednesday night
are expected to mostly be in the 60s with southerly winds.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

KGRI/KEAR TAFS
It will be a very quiet night with clear skies and winds
becoming light out of the south. Scattered clouds should
move into the area Friday morning, but cloud bases through
Friday afternoon are expected to remain above 3,000 ft agl.
There will be at least some chance for strong to severe
thunderstorms primarily just beyond the end of this TAF period
around or after 7 PM Friday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Wesely