Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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508 FXUS63 KGLD 231046 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 446 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Kit Carson, Cheyenne [CO], Sherman, Wallace, and Greeley counties. - Severe thunderstorms may develop generally along and east of Highway 27 both this afternoon and evening. 2 rounds of storms are possible and all hazards are possible. There is a 35% chance of no storms occurring if the air remains too dry. - A cold front moves through this evening and into tonight generally producing wind gusts around 30 to 50 mph. Gusts up to 65 mph are possible, but look to be sporadic if they do occur. - Saturday also looks like another day with critical fire weather conditions and severe weather possible. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 437 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024 A fairly active day is possible for the Tri-State area today as an upper low swings through the Northern Rockies with a deepening surface low pressure system moving off the Front Range. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that the center of the low should reach the KS/CO border by the mid to late afternoon hours with the dryline extending into the first row of KS counties. With sunny skies and warm air advection from the southwest warming temperatures into the 80`s and low 90`s, relative humidity behind the dryline should lower into the lower teens (if not single digits). With winds gusting around 20 to 30 mph, critical fire weather conditions are forecast to be met for most counties along the Colorado border. However, the advancing surface low from the northwest could weaken the flow for counties along and north of Highway 36 and limit them to only an hour of critical fire conditions. As such, the Red Flag Warning remains for counties south of Interstate 70 and west of Highway 27. However, if observations later this morning show the surface low progressing slower, the remaining counties along the Colorado border may need to be added. In regards to severe weather, the threat area looks to largely be determined by the position of the dryline. For areas near and east of the dryline, severe storms will be possible with no inhibition and the dryline as a genesis point. Towering cu could develop through the afternoon, but may not initially be able to become storms as most guidance suggest a fairly dry profile, at least initially. Dry air entrainment may completely prevent any storm from forming, especially if low level moisture advection is weak and confined mostly to near the surface. However, if there is decent low level moisture advection ahead of the dryline and able to saturate the lowest km (as suggested by the NAM 3k), the severe weather threat would increase and would feature very large hail with damaging wind gusts and potentially a tornado or two. This would be similar to previous dryline events this year where large hail would be the main initial threat. Later in the evening, the cold front would move through and potentially generate additional storms in an environment that is much more supportive of tornadoes (probably QLCS) and straight line winds. For tornadoes, SRH would increase to 200-400 m2/s2 and 0-3km shear around 30-40kts, though it may be parallel instead of normal to the boundary which would keep chances low. For winds, DCAPE greater than 1250 J/KG, corfidi downshear around 50-60 kts, and a linear storm motion would allow gusts up to 70 mph. This second line of storms also looks like it would favor areas from Trenton, NE to Gove, KS and east. In short all modes of severe weather are possible today, but there is around a 35% that no storms form in the area if there is enough dry air entrainment. For the remainder of the night, cloud cover is forecast to increase as the cold front moves through the area. The bigger issue tonight is the potential for wind gusts up to 65 mph in the wake of the front. Guidance continue to suggest around 8mb or greater pressure rise this evening and into the early overnight hours as the system moves out of the area. Most of the wind gusts are currently forecast to be around 30-50mph, but will have to keep an eye on how the system leaves and how much the pressure initially drops. Winds will then lower slowly going into sunrise tomorrow. Tomorrow, a milder day is forecast with winds continuing to weaken behind the system and mostly sunny skies. With the cold front`s passage, temperatures are forecast to warm into the 60`s and 70`s. Going into tomorrow evening/night, a few showers are possible in Eastern Colorado as an upper shortwave moves through and low pressure begins to develop along the Front Range again. Nothing hazardous is expected at this time. Lows are forecast to drop into the 40`s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 419 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024 Storms, potentially severe, are forecast for the holiday weekend. Heading into the next work week, a drying/warming trend is anticipated as a ridge of high pressure builds overhead. For Saturday, a somewhat similar setup to Thursday is forecast where southwest portions of the area will experience fire weather conditions west of the dryline while elsewhere could see the potential for development of severe thunderstorms. Storms could potentially form and progress eastward off the dryline in the afternoon-evening favoring locations along/east of Hwy 83, but also will want to monitor the potential for storms developing later in the evening as some forcing could be provided by the 700-850 mb wave swinging through possibly impacting more of the area. SPC has placed areas generally along/east of Hwy 83 in a marginal (hazard level 1/5) risk for severe weather while along/east of Hwy 283 are in a slight (hazard level 2/5) risk. The main system remains forecast to move through in the Sunday- Monday timeframe, providing 30-50% PoPs Sunday. Cooler temperatures expected before a drying/warming trend at the start of the work week with ridging building in. More storm chances return Tuesday- Wednesday as embedded waves traverse through the flow. For temperatures, middle 70s to upper 80s expected for highs on Saturday, slightly cooler in the 70s Sunday, then warming again Monday onward, with 80s for most of the area by Tuesday. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 40s to low-mid 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 950 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. South-southeast winds of 12-15kts with some higher gusts are anticipated from taf issuance through sunrise. From 12z-00z, southerly winds will slowly veer to the southwest, gusting up to 30kts. After 01z, winds are currently forecast to quickly shift to the northwest with gusts up to 35kts as a cold front moves through. Presently, no precipitation is anticipated. KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A southeast wind up to 10kts is forecast from taf issuance through 13z. From 14z-00z, southerly winds gusting up to 30kts are forecast. After 01z, winds are currently forecast to quickly shift to the northwest with gusts up to 30kts as a cold front moves through. At this time, confidence is too low to pinpoint when/if the terminal would see showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity or over the terminal. Presently, it appears the 23z-03z timeframe would have the best chance based on the latest data. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 850 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024 Recent coordination with our fire weather partners suggest the continuance of Fire Weather Watches/Red Flag Warnings until further notice. On Thursday, the combination of dry fuels, southwest winds gusting 20 to 30 mph and relative humidity values as low as 10 percent will create critical fire weather conditions. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in Colorado as well as Sherman, Wallace, Greeley counties in Kansas from 17z-03z. A strong cold front will move through the warning area Thursday evening, abruptly shifting winds to the north to northwest with gusts generally up to 50 mph, possibly as high as 65 mph. This will create unpredictable fire behavior for any fires ongoing. First responders stay up to date on the position and timing of the cold frontal passage should any fires occur. Despite possible critical fire conditions, we`ll be leaving Yuma county and Cheyenne county Kansas out of the Red Flag Warning. These area have been hit hard by high rainfall amounts in Yuma county a few feet of accumulating hail in spots. NASA Sport 0-10km soil moisture remains rather high and would likely not support explosive fire growth at this time. Winds are also in question this afternoon and may not reach 25 mph. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for KSZ013-027-041. CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ253-254. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...99 FIRE WEATHER...99/KAK